Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Bitwise Forecasts New All-Time Highs in 2026 as 4-Year Cycle Fades

Forget the old playbook. The four-year cycle that once dictated Bitcoin's rhythm is breaking down, and Bitwise says that's a signal for unprecedented highs.

The New Bull Thesis

Analysts at the crypto asset manager argue that Bitcoin's maturation is rewriting its own rules. Institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and its evolving role as a macro asset are severing its ties to the predictable, halving-driven boom-and-bust pattern. The market isn't just following a script anymore—it's writing a new one.

Target 2026

The prediction is bold and specific: fresh all-time highs are on the horizon for 2026. This isn't a vague hope; it's a forecast built on the premise that Bitcoin's fundamentals are now stronger than any historical technical pattern. The asset is outgrowing its past, propelled by a wave of capital that treats it less like a speculative tech toy and more like a legitimate pillar of a modern portfolio—a notion that would give a traditional finance purist heartburn, if they weren't already busy shorting the next innovation.

The fade of the four-year cycle isn't an end. It's the beginning of a more complex, integrated, and potentially more lucrative phase for the world's first cryptocurrency. Buckle up.

TLDR

• Bitcoin fell to $87,095 on Tuesday, recovering slightly from a two-week low of $85,288 as risk appetite weakened following mixed U.S. jobs data
• U.S. employers added 64,000 jobs in November, beating estimates, but unemployment climbed to 4.6%, its highest level since September 2021
• Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts Bitcoin will break its traditional four-year cycle and reach new all-time highs in 2026 due to structural market changes
• Bitcoin has dropped nearly 18% over the past year while traditional stock indices like the S&P 500 gained 12% in the same period
• Futures markets show only a 24.4% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the January meeting

Bitcoin traded at $87,095 on Tuesday after dropping to $85,288 earlier in the session. The decline marked the lowest level for the cryptocurrency in two weeks.

The price drop followed the release of November’s U.S. employment data. Employers added 64,000 jobs during the month, surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of 45,000.

However, the unemployment rate increased to 4.6%. This represents the highest jobless rate since September 2021. A broader measure that includes discouraged workers and part-time employees for economic reasons reached 8.7%, the highest since August 2021.

BREAKING: The US economy added 64,000 jobs in November, above expectations of 50,000.

The unemployment rate ROSE to 4.6%, above expectations of 4.5%.

Unemployment in the US is now at its highest level since September 2021.

The labor market is still weakening.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 16, 2025

The Bureau of Labor Statistics also released partial October data showing payrolls fell by 105,000. Government employment dropped by 162,000 in October and declined another 6,000 in November.

Bitcoin has tracked recent losses in global technology stocks. Questions surrounding artificial intelligence led investors to lock in profits from the tech sector. This reduced appetite for cryptocurrency and other assets with higher risk profiles.

Traditional Cycle Pattern May Be Ending

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs in 2026. He argues the cryptocurrency’s traditional four-year cycle tied to halvings is weakening.

JUST IN: bitcoin is set to break the 4-year cycle and hit a new all-time high in 2026, says Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan

He cites:

• Weakening halving effects
• Falling interest rates
• Accelerating institutional adoption pic.twitter.com/mnJ32OFWg8

— Bitcoin Archive (@BitcoinArchive) December 16, 2025

“The forces that previously drove four-year cycles—the bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and crypto’s leverage-fueled booms and busts—are weaker than they’ve been in past cycles,” Hougan stated in a Monday blog post.

The four-year pattern typically features three years of gains followed by a sharp pullback. According to this cycle, 2026 should be a down year. Bitwise expects the opposite.

Hougan points to sustained inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs as a key factor. Major brokerage platforms now offer wider access to Bitcoin products. These demand-side forces could outweigh the supply reduction from halvings.

Bitcoin was less volatile than Nvidia shares in 2025, according to Hougan. He expects the cryptocurrency’s correlation with U.S. equities to decline as crypto-specific factors like regulation and adoption play larger roles.

Interest Rate Outlook Remains Uncertain

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week and presented a dovish monetary policy outlook. Bitcoin failed to gain support from the move.

January rate cut odds just increased from 24.4% to 26.6% after the JOBS report pic.twitter.com/gcxGRTtIyS

— Satoshi Flipper (@SatoshiFlipper) December 16, 2025

Market expectations for near-term rate cuts remained largely unchanged after the jobs data. CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed a 24.4% probability of a rate cut at the January Federal Reserve meeting.

Investors now await Thursday’s consumer price index inflation report. The labor market and inflation are the Fed’s two main considerations for policy changes. Weaker payrolls and softer inflation could drive expectations for lower interest rates.

Lower rates typically boost the appeal of speculative assets like cryptocurrency. Ultra-low interest rates and Federal Reserve liquidity measures drove Bitcoin’s 2021 bull run.

The Fed began buying back short-dated Treasuries over the past week. This increases market liquidity and could open opportunities for more investment in speculative assets.

Bitcoin currently trades more than 30% below its all-time high of $126,080 set in early October. The cryptocurrency has fallen nearly 18% over the past year while the S&P 500 gained 12% during the same period.