Crypto & Stock Futures Hold Steady Ahead of Friday’s Key Inflation Data

Markets hold their breath. Crypto and stock futures flatline as traders brace for Friday's inflation numbers—the economic report that could make or break the week's momentum.

The Waiting Game

No one's making big moves. Not yet. The air is thick with anticipation, a classic pre-data lull where every portfolio manager pretends they're not nervously checking the clock. Capital sits on the sidelines, waiting for the Bureau of Labor Statistics to drop the latest Consumer Price Index figures.

Why This Number Matters

It's simple: inflation dictates everything. The Fed's next move on interest rates, the trajectory of the dollar, the risk appetite for everything from tech stocks to Bitcoin. A hot print sends traditional markets into a tailspin and pressures risk assets. A cool one fuels the rally. Crypto, ever the volatile sibling, often amplifies the reaction either way.

The Crypto Angle

Digital assets mirror the stalemate. Major tokens trade in tight ranges—no explosive pumps, no catastrophic dumps. It's a tactical pause. Institutional flows dry up, and retail traders scroll through charts, looking for a sign. The smart money knows the drill: wait for the data, then decide if it's time to buy the rumor or sell the news.

The Bottom Line

Friday isn't just another data point; it's a potential pivot. Steady now means volatile later. The entire financial ecosystem—from Wall Street to the decentralized exchanges—hangs on a single government statistic. It's almost poetic, if you ignore the fact that a bunch of economists in Washington hold the keys to your portfolio's fate. For now, we watch and wait. The calm before the storm rarely lasts.

TLDR

• The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, core PCE, likely rose to 2.9% in September, marking the 55th straight month above the Fed’s 2% target
• Bitcoin’s implied volatility index shows no major disruptions at 36%, suggesting traders expect only a 1.88% price swing in 24 hours
• A softer inflation report could push the 10-year Treasury yield below 4% and help Bitcoin break out of its $92,000-$94,000 trading range
• Stock futures traded flat on Thursday night with the Dow and S&P 500 near flatline while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.1%
• Markets price in an 87% probability of a quarter-point Fed rate cut on December 10, regardless of PCE data

Stock futures and cryptocurrency markets showed little movement on Thursday night as traders waited for Friday’s inflation report. The data could influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision.

Contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 stayed NEAR flatline. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.1% in overnight trading.

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index is expected to show a 2.9% year-over-year increase for September. This WOULD mark the 55th consecutive month of inflation above the Fed’s 2% target.

The report arrives ahead of the Fed’s December 10 rate decision. Markets currently price in an 87% chance of a quarter-point rate cut next week.

Despite inflation concerns, cryptocurrency volatility remains low. Bitcoin’s implied volatility index sits around 36%, suggesting traders expect a 1.88% price swing over 24 hours.

Bitcoin has been trading in a range between $92,000 and $94,000 for two days. A softer inflation report could push the 10-year Treasury yield below 4%.

This move in yields could help Bitcoin break out of its current range. Nexo Dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev said contained PCE data would support crypto’s rebound.

Alternative Cryptocurrencies Show Higher Volatility

Ethereum’s one-day implied volatility index stood at 57.23%, implying a 3% price swing. This is higher than Bitcoin’s expected movement.

Solana’s volatility index signals a 3.86% price move. XRP shows the highest expected volatility at 4.3%.

ING analysts warned that any decline in Treasury yields could be short-lived. The impact would likely be similar across different cryptocurrencies.

Thursday’s stock market session ended mixed. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted modest gains, with the tech-heavy index marking its eighth positive close in nine days.

Meta climbed 3.4% while Nvidia rose 2.1%. These tech stocks helped lift the broader index.

Friday will bring delayed September figures on personal spending and income. The University of Michigan will also release its December consumer sentiment reading.

Thursday’s jobless claims data showed new filings fell to their lowest level since September 2022. This suggests the labor market is cooling gradually rather than rapidly.

A separate report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed 71,000 job cuts in November. This was the worst November data since 2022.

Fed funds futures reflect strong expectations for rate cuts. The probability of a MOVE next Wednesday jumped sharply from earlier in the month.

CME’s FedWatch tool treats a 25 basis point cut on December 10 as nearly certain. Low volatility expectations stem from anticipated Fed action regardless of PCE data.