Ethereum Fights for Momentum as Profit-Taking Fades—Why Aren’t Prices Rising?

Ethereum’s price action remains sluggish despite fading sell pressure—traders are left scratching their heads. Here’s the breakdown.

The Profit-Taking Paradox

On-chain data shows profit-taking has dropped to yearly lows, yet ETH struggles to break key resistance. Classic crypto: even when the math says 'up,' the market says 'meh.'

Liquidity Ghost Town

Thin order books amplify volatility without direction. Institutional players are parked elsewhere—probably chasing the next shiny AI token.

What’s Next?

Until Ethereum’s ecosystem activity picks up or Bitcoin drags it along, sideways chop rules. Pro tip: Watch for devs shipping actual upgrades, not just 'partnership' press releases.

TLDR

• Ethereum price drops 18.5% in 30 days, struggling despite reduced profit-taking.
• NUPL drops to 0.23, indicating low investor confidence.
• Heavy liquidation pressure keeps Ethereum’s price from bouncing higher.
• Ethereum price stays below key levels, delaying recovery to $3,653.

Ethereum has been struggling in the market, with its price down by 18.5% over the past 30 days. Despite a decrease in profit-taking pressure, Ethereum’s price has shown little signs of a significant recovery. This has left many wondering why the cryptocurrency is not bouncing back, even when one key on-chain indicator suggests that the incentive for profit-taking is diminishing.

Profit-Taking Incentive Drops, But Ethereum Remains Stagnant

One of the key metrics used to understand market sentiment is the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL). This metric tracks the amount of unrealized profit or loss in the market and reflects the psychological state of investors. Currently, Ethereum’s NUPL has dropped to 0.23, its lowest level since July 1, signaling a reduction in profit-taking incentives.

Historically, when NUPL falls to such levels, it has often signaled a potential bottom, which could lead to price recovery. The last time this happened in June 2022, when ethereum saw a significant rally of more than 106%.

However, the current NUPL reading, although lower than before, does not indicate a fully confirmed bottom for Ethereum yet. If the NUPL drops further, closer to the 0.17 range, it could signal a stronger chance of a market reversal. For now, however, Ethereum’s price remains weak, and the market has not yet shown the conditions for a sharp bounce.

Derivatives Market Creates Uncertainty for Ethereum

One of the main factors limiting Ethereum’s price movement is pressure from the derivatives market. According to Gate’s ETH-USDT liquidation map, Ethereum has significant short exposure at $2.36 billion, while long exposure is still notable at $1.05 billion. This imbalance in the market creates instability, as even small price changes can trigger forced liquidations.

Ethereum is currently trading around $3,053, a critical price point where the heaviest long-liquidation cluster sits. If Ethereum’s price drops below this level, it could trigger forced selling, further depressing the market.

The liquidation of long positions could exert downward pressure on the price, preventing any immediate recovery. Despite the minimal profit-taking pressure, the risk of liquidations on the long side is keeping Ethereum’s price from gaining traction.

Ethereum’s Price Chart Confirms Ongoing Risk Zone

Looking at the technical side, Ethereum’s price remains within a downward-sloping channel. The $3,053 level is a crucial support zone, but if this level breaks, Ethereum could see a further decline. This scenario WOULD mirror the price movement seen earlier in the year, when NUPL dropped to its lowest levels before a major rebound.

For Ethereum to turn the market in its favor, it needs to reclaim key resistance levels. The first major hurdle is $3,653, which is over 14% above its current price. If Ethereum manages to break through this resistance, the market could shift from a bearish to a neutral sentiment. From there, breaking the $3,795 level would further stabilize the market and could set Ethereum on a path toward recovery.

Until Ethereum can break these key levels and show stronger market momentum, it is likely to stay trapped in a phase of low profit-taking and liquidation pressure. The current market dynamics suggest that Ethereum’s price will need more than just a reduction in profit-taking pressure to see a sustained rebound.