Morgan Stanley Sounds Alarm: Bitcoin Braces for a Brutal ’Crypto Winter’

Wall Street’s crypto skeptics are back—and they’re wielding frostbite warnings.

Morgan Stanley just dropped an ice-cold reality check on Bitcoin bulls, predicting a prolonged downturn that could leave hodlers shivering. Forget ‘buy the dip’—this might be a hibernation call.

Here’s the kicker: The bank’s analysts see eerie parallels to 2018’s 80% bloodbath. But this time? Macro headwinds, regulatory grenades, and institutional cold feet could make it worse. Even gold looks spicy by comparison.

Pro tip: When traditional finance starts writing crypto obituaries, it’s usually time to sharpen your contrarian instincts. Or at least check your heating bill.

TLDR

• Morgan Stanley strategists warn that Bitcoin may be entering the “fall season” of its market cycle.
• The bank advises investors to take profits while Bitcoin’s price remains high.
• Bitcoin’s price fell below $99,000 on November 5, breaking key technical support levels.
• Wintermute reports that crypto market liquidity has stalled with declining inflows from ETFs and stablecoins.
• Institutional investors continue to view Bitcoin as “digital gold” but allocations remain slow due to regulatory processes.

Morgan Stanley strategists have warned that Bitcoin may be entering the “fall season” of its typical four-year market cycle. This phase often precedes a major downturn. As Bitcoin’s price momentum slows, the bank advises investors to consider taking profits. They also caution that a “crypto winter” could follow, leading to extended periods of price declines.

Bitcoin Faces Downturn as Market Signals Shift

Denny Galindo, an investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, explained that bitcoin follows a repeating “three-up, one-down” cycle. “We are in the fall season right now,” Galindo said during an appearance on the Crypto Goes Mainstream podcast. Fall represents a time of harvest, Galindo added, urging investors to take gains while Bitcoin’s price remains high.

The current market signals indicate that Bitcoin might be at the peak of its current cycle. On November 5, Bitcoin’s price dropped below $99,000, falling under its 365-day moving average. This is seen as a key technical support level by traders. CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno highlighted that the drop signals a shift in market sentiment, suggesting that a downturn might be near.

The significance of Bitcoin losing the 365-day MA:
It was the final confirmation to the start of the 2022 bear market.

The price needs to cross back above it quickly. pic.twitter.com/9ChB28Zl5g

— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) November 4, 2025

The market’s liquidity has been declining, according to Wintermute, a leading crypto market maker. The firm noted that inflows from stablecoins, ETFs, and digital asset treasuries have plateaued. These components have been key drivers of crypto market depth since early 2025, but recent months show declining activity.

Bitrue analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima echoed this sentiment, calling the recent price movements a “confirmation of a technical bear market.” He explained that the slowdown in market activity is compounded by reduced institutional demand. Bitcoin’s price has remained range-bound between $106,000 and $116,000, signaling investor hesitation. As Bitcoin’s momentum softens, its ability to break through these price ranges looks increasingly unlikely.

Institutional Interest Remains Strong, But Slow to Act

Despite the near-term challenges, institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to grow. Michael Cyprys, head of US brokers at Morgan Stanley, stated that large investors now view Bitcoin as “digital gold.” Cyprys added that Bitcoin is seen as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement. However, institutional allocations tend to MOVE slowly due to regulatory processes and long-term mandates.

Bitcoin ETFs have gained popularity among institutional investors, offering easier access to the digital asset. As of now, US spot Bitcoin ETFs hold over $137 billion in assets, while Ether ETFs manage an additional $22.4 billion. These institutional investments have played a role in reducing Bitcoin’s volatility, even as the market enters a cyclical slowdown.

Bitcoin’s current range-bound movement shows that long-term holders are selling aggressively. According to Bitfinex, these holders have ramped up their selling, offloading 104,000 BTC per month. This is the most significant selling activity since mid-July, as the market grapples with fading institutional demand and increasing price pressure.

With the current technical indicators pointing to a slowdown, Bitcoin faces downside risks. Unless ETF inflows or new spot demand pick up, Bitcoin’s price could continue to struggle. Analysts predict that Bitcoin may test support levels around $106,000 or even fall below the $100,000 mark. The market remains cautious as investors await further signals of momentum.