AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Stock Defies Earnings Letdown: Why Bulls Are Still Charging

Wall Street shrugs off weak numbers as ASTS believers double down on satellite disruption.

The 'future of connectivity' trade stays hot—even when the financials aren't.

Space-age ambitions meet earthly realities: Can this moonshot justify its valuation?

Bonus jab: Another day, another 'story stock' where fundamentals are someone else's problem.

TLDR

• AST SpaceMobile reported Q3 loss of 45 cents per share on revenue of $14.7 million, missing Wall Street expectations of a 22-cent loss on $19.9 million in sales.
• The stock remained stable in after-hours trading despite the earnings miss, down just 0.1% at $68.80.
• The company secured over $1 billion in contracted revenue commitments, including major deals with Verizon and stc Group worth $175 million.
• AST has over $3.2 billion in cash and liquidity after raising $1.15 billion from convertible notes with a 2% coupon.
• The company plans five orbital launches by end of Q1 2026 to reach 45-60 satellites by year-end 2026, with BlueBird 6 launching in early December.

AST SpaceMobile posted third-quarter results that fell short of analyst estimates. The company reported a per-share loss of 45 cents on revenue of $14.7 million.

$ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) #earnings are out: pic.twitter.com/OJMz1UXwrB

— The Earnings Correspondent (@earnings_guy) November 10, 2025

Wall Street had expected a smaller loss of 22 cents per share. Analysts also projected sales WOULD reach $19.9 million for the quarter.

The miss didn’t seem to bother investors much. ASTS stock dropped only 0.1% in after-hours trading to $68.80.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc., ASTS

During regular trading hours, shares fell 0.7%. The broader market moved higher, with the S&P 500 up 1.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.8%.

A year ago in Q3 2024, AST reported a much larger loss of $1.10 per share. Revenue that quarter was just $1.1 million, showing how much the company has grown.

CEO Abel Avellan said commercial activity has picked up speed in recent months. He pointed to strong demand for the company’s space-based cellular broadband solution.

The third quarter revenue came from U.S. government contract milestones and gateway deliveries. AST maintained its second-half 2025 revenue guidance of $50 million to $75 million.

Major Contract Wins Drive Growth

The company landed two big deals recently. AST signed a definitive commercial agreement with stc Group covering Saudi Arabia and other markets in the Middle East and North Africa.

The stc deal includes a $175 million prepayment for future services. The contract runs for 10 years.

AST also expanded its partnership with Verizon. The agreement positions the company to target 100% coverage across the continental United States.

These deals helped push total contracted revenue commitments past $1 billion. The company works with over 50 mobile network operator partners representing nearly 3 billion subscribers worldwide.

Satellite Launch Campaign Underway

AST shipped BlueBird 6 to India for launch in the first half of December. BlueBird 7 is expected to ship to Cape Canaveral in November with launch coming shortly after.

The company remains on track for five orbital launches by the end of Q1 2026. Launches will occur every one to two months on average.

AST aims to have 45 to 60 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026. BlueBird satellites 8 through 19 are currently in various stages of production.

The company expects to complete assembly of 40 satellite equivalents by early 2026. A proprietary ASIC chip with up to 10 GHz of processing bandwidth is planned for integration during Q1 2026.

Strong Balance Sheet Position

AST raised $1.15 billion in gross proceeds from a new convertible notes offering. The 10-year notes carry a 2% coupon and an effective conversion price of $96.30 per share.

The company has over $3.2 billion in total cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and available liquidity. This figure is pro forma for the convertible notes offering and ATM facility availability.

AST reduced its outstanding 4.25% convertible senior notes to $50 million. The company monetized the related capped call for $74.5 million in net cash proceeds.

Operating expenses totaled $94.4 million for the third quarter. This included $26.7 million in depreciation, amortization, and stock-based compensation.

Wall Street projects 2026 sales of $267 million, up from expected 2025 revenue of $56.4 million. The stock has climbed more than 225% year to date.

Analysts estimate 2027 EBITDA of about $500 million. AST now trades at roughly 50 times estimated 2027 EBITDA, up from about 12 times at the start of the year.

Initial service activation is planned for key markets including nationwide intermittent service across the continental United States. Early 2026 activations are planned for Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom.