Bukele’s Bold Bitcoin Bet: El Salvador’s $1B Crypto Holdings Paying Off Big

El Salvador's billion-dollar Bitcoin gamble just hit the jackpot—and President Nayib Bukele isn't shy about rubbing it in.

The Crypto Pioneer's Play

While traditional finance skeptics clutched their pearls, Bukele doubled down on Bitcoin as national strategy. The Central American nation's treasury now bulges with digital assets acquired through strategic accumulation during market dips.

Market Momentum Shifts

Bitcoin's recent surge propelled El Salvador's holdings past the $1 billion mark—a figure that makes Wall Street's conservative bond portfolios look downright sleepy. The country's bold move into decentralized assets continues drawing both admiration and disbelief from international observers.

Of course, traditional bankers will call it reckless—they're still trying to figure out how to charge fees for Bitcoin custody.

Prediction market activity rises

Following Bukele’s post, competing platform Polymarket quickly launched its own market on the same event, with odds showing a 43% chance that El Salvador’s bitcoin holdings would reach $1 billion by December 2025.

Kalshi has tracked this bet since mid-August, with odds previously holding steady before the recent spike.

Previous controversy over bitcoin purchases

Despite Optimism on prediction markets, questions remain regarding the country’s official Bitcoin acquisition policy.

In July, El Salvador’s central bank president and finance minister claimed that the country had stopped buying Bitcoin after finalizing a $1.4 billion loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

However, Bukele and the official Bitcoin Office continued to announce new purchases, with current reported holdings at 6,282 BTC (approximately $709 million).

For up-to-date data, see the El Salvador Bitcoin treasury tracker.

Impact and industry response

Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket have addressed the earlier controversy with dedicated markets.

Meanwhile, the momentum in prediction markets coincides with a $15 million fundraising announcement for Clearing Company, a new prediction platform.

The ongoing debate over El Salvador’s Bitcoin strategy continues to draw global attention as the country’s holdings approach the $1 billion mark.