Hayes: Bitcoin Won’t Hit $3.4M — But Prepare for Something Much Bigger
Bitcoin's ceiling just got a reality check—but the upside remains staggering.
Arthur Hayes drops the mic on unrealistic price predictions while maintaining bullish conviction. The former BitMEX CEO argues against pie-in-the-sky numbers but insists the digital gold narrative has legs.
The Real Math Behind the Movement
Forget fantasyland projections. Hayes focuses on tangible drivers: institutional adoption, macroeconomic instability, and generational wealth transfer. He sees traditional finance finally grasping what crypto natives understood years ago.
Why Wall Street Still Doesn't Get It
Traditional analysts keep applying outdated metrics to revolutionary technology. They're measuring rocket fuel with teaspoon increments—missing the exponential potential entirely.
The final word? Bitcoin might not hit seven figures overnight, but it's poised to redefine value storage for the digital age. And that's enough to make legacy finance sweat through its tailored suits.
Hayes on money printing and bitcoin
In his latest blog post, Hayes attributes his Optimism to renewed U.S. monetary expansion under the Trump administration.
He contends that President TRUMP will seek to influence the Federal Reserve to enable substantial money printing, a move Hayes believes will benefit Bitcoin. Hayes wrote:
“And therefore, I proclaim with extreme confidence regarding money printing, these crackers ain’t playin’.”
Credit growth and price predictions
Hayes analyzed historical correlations between credit growth and Bitcoin price, noting that if the same relationship held, Bitcoin could theoretically reach $3.4 million by 2028.
However, he tempered expectations, stating:
“Do I think bitcoin will rise to $3.4 million by 2028? No, but I believe the number will be markedly higher than the ~$115,000 that it trades at today.”
Debate around bullish forecasts
Hayes has previously suggested a $1 million target for Bitcoin by 2028, motivated by factors like international capital controls and shifting liquidity conditions.
His recent reiteration of bullish outlooks has drawn both support and criticism, with Bitwise’s Andre Dragosch dismissing the liquidity argument as a “useless banana.”
