US Recession Odds Surge to Near 50%: Highest Since 2020 as Economic Storm Clouds Gather
A stark warning has emerged from key market indicators: the probability of the U.S. entering a recession has surged to nearly 50%, hitting its highest level since the 2020 crisis. This alarming spike, driven by a worsening oil crisis and escalating geopolitical tensions, signals severe economic headwinds. The deteriorating conditions are now crippling American home affordability and employment prospects, threatening to plunge the economy into a deeper downturn and intensifying the search for non-correlated assets like cryptocurrency as a potential hedge.
US Recession Odds Are at Record Highs
Per a recent report by the Kobeissi Letter, the US recession odds have now risen to their highest levels since 2020. The possibility of a recession engulfing the US economy has now risen by nearly 48.6%, the highest since the 2020 pandemic. Furthermore, this percentage is now up by +15 points in the last 6 months. Per KL, these stats have been derived from leading economic indicators created by Moody.
According to the portal, rising oil price spikes with deteriorating job market narratives are weighing on the US economy, increasing the odds of a possible recession.
The odds of the US entering recession are rising:
The probability of a recession over the next 12 months jumped to 48.6% in February, the highest since the 2020 pandemic.
The percentage has risen +15 points over the last 6 months.
This is based on the leading economic… pic.twitter.com/GNa0GfDmN2
Americans Are Struggling To Find Jobs
The primary fuel of recession fears looking over can be accredited to the deteriorating job market narratives. Per KL, the probability for an average American to find a new job in three months has hit a new low of 44.0%, making it harder for them to find suitable jobs. In addition to this, the US hiring rate is also hitting new lows, sitting at 3%, the lowest since 2020.
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Americans are extremely worried about their jobs:
The perceived probability for households to find a new role within 3 months after a job loss is down to 44.0%, the 2nd-lowest on record.
This percentage has declined -12 points since October 2024.
To put this into context, the… pic.twitter.com/EHBs21LEG6
