Dormancy Spikes, Sell Pressure Falls: So Why Is XRP Still Stuck?
XRP investors are holding tight—and selling less—yet the price refuses to budge. What's holding it back?
The Contradiction in the Data
On-chain metrics paint a confusing picture. Network activity shows a surge in dormant tokens, a classic sign of accumulation. Simultaneously, exchange outflows suggest sell pressure is drying up. By traditional crypto logic, this combination should be rocket fuel.
The Invisible Anchor
So where's the lift-off? The answer lies beyond the charts. Lingering regulatory overhang from the SEC case continues to cast a long shadow, keeping institutional money on the sidelines. Meanwhile, the broader market narrative has shifted, chasing the next shiny AI-agent token or meme coin, leaving even solid projects in a liquidity vacuum.
A Market of Narratives, Not Just Numbers
XRP's stagnation is a masterclass in how crypto markets are driven by stories as much as supply. You can have all the right technical signals, but without a compelling narrative to capture trader imagination, momentum stalls. It's the financial equivalent of having a great engine but no one to turn the key.
The path forward hinges on a catalyst—a definitive legal resolution, a major partnership announcement, or a sudden shift in market sentiment. Until then, it's a waiting game. Because in today's market, patience isn't just a virtue; it's the only asset some traditional fund managers haven't figured out how to over-leverage and blow up.
Why XRP Is Stuck As Dormancy Rises And Sell Pressure Slows Down
Spent Coins Drop 91%, Dormancy Hits Three-Month Peak
The narrative starts with the spent coins, which measure the amount of older XRP tokens moving daily. The indicator has dropped by 91% or 16.32 million XRP as of today compared to 186.36 million XRP on November 15, and this also represents the lowest level in the past three months. A pause in the movement of the old supply usually causes the sell pressure on XRP to plunge. This explains why, as spending coins decrease, dormancy reaches its greatest point in three months.
In a normal market, this change, in itself, WOULD be predicted to sustain a higher XRP price. However, at the current point in time, the conviction groups are going in the reverse direction, and that is why XRP is stagnating despite rising metrics. HODL Waves tracking supply held by each age group will provide obvious distributions amongst older holders over the last month. The 6-12 months follow-up has declined with 26.18% of supply decreasing to 21.65% of supply. The 1-2 year group has dropped to 8.61% and even the 2-3 years cohort has declined to 14.12%.
These groups FORM the backbone of trend strength because they control the supply that rarely moves. When they reduce their share like this, upside attempts lose power, which also explains why even recent whale buying hasn’t been enough to lift the price. Whales have increased exposure, but persistent outflows from older holders are still overpowering that demand right now. Until long-term supply stops leaving these cohorts, dormancy alone cannot drive a breakout for XRP.
Key Resistance at $2.28 Blocks Momentum Build
The chart reflects the same tug-of-war that’s been playing out. xrp price has remained stuck between $2.28 and $1.81 since November 15, and traders haven’t seen a single daily close above $2.28 during this period. This remains the key line that must break for momentum to build and for any real XRP breakout to materialize. A successful move above $2.28 would open the next targets at $2.56 and also $2.69, which are areas where the token has reacted strongly before.
A close below $1.98, however, would weaken the current structure and increase the chance of a return to $1.81. At the time of writing, long-term holders continue to apply pressure that anchors price movement, and this explains why XRP remains stuck in this range despite the bullish dormancy signal.
For now, the message is actually quite clear. Dormancy sits at a three-month high as spent coins hit a three-month low, but long-term holders continue distributing their holdings. The XRP price analysis shows that the token will stay inside its range until these conviction groups stabilize and a daily candle closes above $2.28. Established holders continue to apply sell pressure that overpowers the reduced movement of older coins, and this prevents the breakout that shorter-term metrics suggest should already happen. This explains why XRP remains stuck—the bullish on-chain signal has materialized, yet conviction holders continue to dominate price action with their fundamental selling pressure right now.
