Stocks Nudge Up as Traders Watch Fed Moves and Trump’s Next Play

Markets inch forward—half hopeful, half skeptical—as the financial circus rolls on.

The Fed's Tightrope Walk

All eyes on Jerome Powell's next act. Will he hint at rate cuts or double down on inflation fears? Either way, traders are ready to overreact.

Trump Factor: Volatility's Best Friend

Love him or hate him, the former president remains the market's favorite chaos agent. Every tweet, every rally—another excuse for algos to panic-buy or sell.

The Real Winner? Uncertainty

In today's market, clarity is the enemy. The more confused investors get, the more hedge funds profit from the churn—because someone's always willing to bet on both sides of a coin toss.

Bonus jab: Meanwhile, your 401(k) still can't decide if it wants to retire before you do.

Stock markets are climbing, but the week hinges on the Fed and Trump’s Ukraine talks. Stocks from Asia to Europe show optimism, yet volatility looms as rate cuts and geopolitics collide.

Stock Market Outlook: Dow Jones and S&P 500 Push Higher

The stock market opened the week on a cautious but positive note. Futures for the Dow Jones inched higher by 57 points, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.14%. Nasdaq futures also moved up as Wall Street looked for signs of lower interest rates. After two straight winning weeks, investors remain confident. Small-cap stocks jumped more than 3% last week, showing appetite for growth even in a choppy environment.

Earnings season is winding down, but major retailers like Walmart, Home Depot, and Target will still report. So far, more than 80% of S&P 500 companies have beaten expectations, keeping Optimism alive. Yet, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve. Traders believe the Fed will likely cut rates in September, with futures pricing in an 85% chance. The Jackson Hole meeting this week could give the clearest clues.

Asia Stocks Rise While Ukraine Talks Loom

Markets in Asia traded mostly higher on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained nearly 1%, while China’s CSI 300 climbed 1.5% to its highest level since October 2024. Hong Kong and India also moved up, while South Korea lagged with a drop of more than 1%. Taiwan and Australia touched fresh intra-day highs, showing investor confidence across the region.

But politics cast a heavy shadow. U.S. President Donald TRUMP is preparing to meet Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as well as European leaders, in Washington. The meeting follows Trump’s summit with Vladimir Putin, which ended without a ceasefire. Investors worry that prolonged conflict could hit global growth. For now, Asia’s stock market reaction suggests hope for progress.

Europe Eyes Stock Market Gains Ahead of Trump Meeting

European stock market futures also pointed higher at the open. The U.K.’s FTSE, Germany’s DAX, and France’s CAC 40 all saw gains of around 0.2%. Leaders from Germany, France, and the U.K. are joining Zelenskyy in Washington for talks with Trump. The pressure is high, as Ukraine faces strong demands to strike a deal. Reports suggest Russia WOULD accept a ceasefire if it gained control of the Donbas region. Trump has claimed that Zelenskyy could “end the war almost immediately.”

The meeting could reshape the outlook for Europe. Energy prices, defense spending, and market sentiment all hinge on the outcome. For traders, the stakes are clear. Any sign of a breakthrough could fuel more stock market momentum across Europe.

Fed in Focus: Futures and Interest Rate Bets

The Federal Reserve remains the biggest market driver this week. Futures traders are betting heavily on a rate cut in September. The CME FedWatch tool shows an 85% chance of easing, as inflation data softens and growth signals flash mixed. Reports last week showed stronger consumer spending but weaker industrial production. Manufacturing activity in New York also surprised to the upside, adding confusion.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at Jackson Hole on Friday. Investors expect clarity, but Powell may keep options open. Stocks have rallied in recent weeks on hopes of cheaper borrowing costs. The Dow Jones is up nearly 2% in the last week, while the S&P 500 has gained close to 1%. If Powell hints at delays, that optimism could fade quickly.

Stocks, Trump, and Ukraine Keep Traders on Edge

The mix of politics and policy has left traders balancing risk. On one hand, strong corporate earnings and hopes for Fed cuts are lifting stocks. On the other, Trump’s talks with Ukraine and Europe could set the tone for geopolitics in the months ahead.

“” says Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness.