Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Braces for Its Most Critical Challenge in 2025
The clock's ticking—Bitcoin's halving cycle faces a make-or-break moment as 2025 tests its resilience like never before.
Will history repeat—or rupture?
Market veterans watch with bated breath as the four-year pattern—once gospel for crypto traders—hits its toughest stress test yet. Post-halving supply shocks meet institutional FOMO, while skeptics whisper 'tulip mania' under their breath (between sips of their $8 artisanal coffee).
One thing's certain: Wall Street's latecomers will either fuel the next ATH or become exit liquidity for the OGs. Place your bets.
Bitcoin’s Classic Cycle and How It Worked
The Bitcoin cycle revolved around one key event: the halving. Roughly every four years, mining rewards were cut in half, limiting new supply. This scarcity often triggered a post-halving rally, leading to an ATH about 12–18 months later. Then came a steep crash, with Bitcoin plunging 70% to 80%, dragging the entire crypto market into a deep winter. The cycle then reset as the next halving approached.
This pattern played out in 2013, 2017, and 2021. But the latest run has already broken tradition. In 2024, Bitcoin hit a record high above $73,000the halving, not after. This has led some analysts to declare the old script dead.
Why Bitcoin’s Cycle May Be Over
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 was a turning point. These funds gave institutions a simple way to gain exposure without directly holding crypto. Massive inflows followed, pushing prices higher months before the halving.
Institutional demand is not the only disruptor. More public companies are adding Bitcoin to their treasuries, and long-term holders are accumulating at record levels. Supportive regulation under the current U.S. administration, along with falling interest rate expectations, is adding stability.
Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan says the four-year cycle’s key forces are weaker now. He predicts Bitcoin will post strong returns in 2026, sealing the end of the old rhythm.
This is why the bitcoin 4 year cycle is over. Top 100 Bitcoin treasury companies hold almost 1 MILLION Bitcoin 🤯 BlackRock. Fidelity. Bit wise. Etc. pic.twitter.com/8kisGtx580
— Jason Ai. Williams (@GoingParabolic) August 9, 2025
Bitcoin Still Has Its Defenders
Not everyone agrees the cycle is finished. Some analysts argue that halvings are hardcoded into Bitcoin and can’t be “canceled.” They believe the influence of ETFs and institutional money actually reinforces the cycle because traditional finance also moves in four-year political and economic patterns.
Others warn against assuming smooth growth is here to stay. Market shocks, macroeconomic downturns, or sudden regulatory shifts could still trigger steep corrections. And while recent pullbacks have been milder — around 26% compared to past 70–80% crashes — declines of 30–50% remain possible.
The New Bitcoin Market: Macro Over Math
If the cycle is ending, it’s because the market has matured. Price moves are now shaped by a mix of global economic conditions, liquidity trends, and institutional flows. The halving remains relevant, but it’s no longer the only driver.
Ryan Chow of Solv Protocol notes that today’s market reacts less to supply shocks and more to macro events, like interest rate changes or geopolitical tensions. This shift could mean fewer extreme crashes and more stable long-term growth — but also less predictability for traders.
Some analysts now expect the most significant gains in the current run to arrive between late 2025 and early 2026, if the old timing still has any influence at all.
Bitcoin’s Future: Stability or Surprise?
If 2026 delivers strong gains without a major crash, it will mark the clearest break from Bitcoin’s four-year tradition. Supporters of the “cycle is dead” view believe the market will become more like traditional assets, with corrections but no catastrophic wipeouts. Critics warn that crypto’s volatility is far from gone and that complacency could be dangerous.
Whether the four-year rhythm is over or just evolving, one fact is clear — Bitcoin’s market drivers are changing fast. Investors can no longer rely solely on the halving calendar. In this new era, watching ETF flows, regulatory moves, and macro trends may be just as important as tracking block rewards.
