Bitcoin Bottoms at $77K: Arthur Hayes Predicts a Major Rally
Bitcoin price has been volatile, but many analysts believe the worst is over. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes says the recent dip to $77,000 marked a bottom. He predicts a major rally, fueled by the Federal Reserve’s shifting monetary policies and political developments in the U.S. Here’s what’s driving Bitcoin’s next move.
Bitcoin Hits a Bottom: $77K Was the Low
Bitcoin dropped to $77,000 in March, its lowest point since November. This correction worried investors, but Hayes believes it was the bottom. The price quickly rebounded to $87,000, showing strong buying interest.
Hayes attributes this recovery to the Federal Reserve’s decision to slow quantitative tightening (QT). The Fed announced that starting in April, it will reduce the monthly Treasury cap from $25 billion to $5 billion. This means less pressure on financial markets and more liquidity, which often benefits Bitcoin.
Other analysts agree. Jamie Coutts from Real Vision stated that QT is “effectively dead.” If true, this would remove a key obstacle for Bitcoin and other risk assets, paving the way for higher prices.
Arthur Hayes Predicts the Fed Will Cut Rates Soon
Arthur Hayes believes the Fed will begin cutting rates by April 1. The central bank recently kept rates at 4.5%, but Hayes sees a shift coming. Lower interest rates would increase liquidity, making Bitcoin more attractive to investors looking for better returns.
Hayes also pointed to the potential return of quantitative easing (QE), which would further boost asset prices. If the Fed stops QT and moves toward QE, Bitcoin could see massive gains.
Other analysts remain cautious. Benjamin Cowen argues that QT is not over yet, as the Fed is still reducing its balance sheet by $35 billion per month. But if Hayes is right and QT truly ends, Bitcoin could surge beyond its recent highs.
Trump’s Crypto Stance Could Be a Game-Changer
Political factors also influence Bitcoin’s price. The Trump administration has taken a friendlier stance on crypto, which could be bullish for BTC. Trump recently posted on Truth Social, urging the Fed to cut rates, calling April 2 “Liberation Day in America.”
There are also rumors that Trump might announce a major crypto policy shift soon. In early March, his administration created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. If the government openly supports Bitcoin, demand could rise sharply.
Additionally, Trump’s nomination of Paul Atkins, a pro-crypto figure, as SEC chair has boosted market confidence. Some analysts believe this could lead to regulatory clarity, making institutional investment in Bitcoin easier.
Bitcoin’s Next Target $90K and Beyond
Bitcoin has bounced back strongly from its recent dip, now trading NEAR $86,000. Analysts predict that breaking key resistance at $86,351 could send BTC to $90,000 in April.
The M2 money supply, which tracks overall liquidity, has been rising. Historically, Bitcoin follows M2 growth with a leverage factor of about 9. This means even a small increase in liquidity could double Bitcoin’s price.
Arthur Hayes is even more optimistic. He believes Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025. This prediction is based on expectations of further Fed easing, growing institutional adoption, and increasing scarcity due to the upcoming halving.
The Stage is Set for a Bitcoin Rally
Bitcoin’s recent dip to $77,000 now looks like a bottom. Arthur Hayes and other analysts expect a major rally as the Fed shifts its monetary policy. If QT ends and rate cuts begin, Bitcoin could soar past $90,000 in the coming months.
Political developments, including Trump’s crypto-friendly stance, could further support Bitcoin’s rise. While some caution that QT is not fully over, the overall sentiment is turning bullish. Investors should stay alert, as Bitcoin’s next big move may be just around the corner.
