Trump Sells Europe More Gas Than the US Can Deliver: Fears of Soaring Prices Grow Amid EU Deal (2025 Update)

• Why Is the US Struggling to Meet Europe’s Gas Demand?
• Are US Export Capacities Already Maxed Out?
• How Did Biden’s Policies Worsen the Crisis?
• What’s Next for US Gas Markets?
• FAQs

The US-EU gas deal, spearheaded by the TRUMP administration, is sparking fears of domestic price surges as infrastructure struggles to keep up with export demands. With LNG exports already at record highs and domestic supply chains strained, analysts warn of a 25% price hike by 2026. Meanwhile, Biden’s earlier restrictions and Trump’s aggressive export targets add layers of uncertainty for both households and industries.

Why Is the US Struggling to Meet Europe’s Gas Demand?

The US has committed to supplying Europe with vast quantities of liquefied natural gas (LNG), but industry leaders like Cheniere Energy are sounding the alarm. “It’s not about lacking gas—it’s about transport. How do we get it there?” asked the firm’s VP. Current infrastructure can’t handle the surge, and without massive state subsidies, delays are inevitable. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts gas prices will jump to $3.9 per million thermal units this year (up from $3.2 in July) and hit $4.3 by 2026—a 25% spike. “Stable production amid rising LNG exports will tighten supply,” the IEA noted.

Are US Export Capacities Already Maxed Out?

Even before the EU deal, US exports were breaking records. Data from Kpler shows a 22% surge in shipments (69 million tons) in early 2025, driven by global demand and domestic factory needs. But the new EU pact could add $250 billion annually to exports—far beyond current capacity. Arturo Regalado, a senior LNG analyst at Kpler, called the targets “unrealistic,” with Aurora Energy Research estimating only $50 billion in feasible growth. The bottleneck? A dire lack of pipelines, port infrastructure, and US-flagged LNG carriers (only one exists today). Trump’s 2028 mandate for US-built ships will quadruple costs, further straining the industry.

How Did Biden’s Policies Worsen the Crisis?

Last year, Biden froze new LNG licenses to shield households from price hikes, citing climate and economic risks. A White House memo argued current exports “more than meet global demand,” warning unchecked growth WOULD “enrich LNG firms but burden Americans.” The freeze left the industry in limbo until Trump’s election reversal. A DOE study projected a 30% local price surge if exports ramp up, as suppliers prioritize higher-paying foreign markets. S&P Global was milder, forecasting a 0.7% annual rise—but that wasthe EU deal’s unprecedented scale.