Trump Warns Cambodia and Thailand: End Your Conflict or Face Higher US Tariffs

• Trump’s Ultimatum: Ceasefire or Trade War
• Diplomacy from the Golf Course
• Economic Leverage in Action
• Historical Context: The India-Pakistan Parallel
• The Human Cost vs. Economic Realities
• What Comes Next?
• FAQ

Former President Donald TRUMP has issued a stark warning to Cambodia and Thailand, urging them to resolve their ongoing conflict or face increased economic penalties from the United States. Drawing parallels to his earlier tactics with India and Pakistan, Trump emphasized immediate ceasefire and peace talks as prerequisites for trade negotiations. The article delves into Trump’s diplomatic calls from Scotland, the economic stakes for both nations, and the broader implications of his tariff threats.

Trump’s Ultimatum: Ceasefire or Trade War

Donald Trump isn’t mincing words. Over the weekend, he took to Truth Social to announce that he’d personally called the leaders of Cambodia and Thailand, delivering a blunt message: “End the fighting now, or brace for economic punishment.” Trump’s approach mirrors his 2024 strategy with India and Pakistan—linking trade privileges to geopolitical stability. “Both sides want an immediate ceasefire and peace,” he wrote. “But until the guns fall silent, there’ll be no seat at the U.S. trade table.”

Diplomacy from the Golf Course

While vacationing at his Turnberry Resort in Scotland—mixing golf with diplomacy—Trump made two high-stakes calls. First, he pressed Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet for “an end to the war,” threatening to freeze trade deals if hostilities continued. Minutes later, he dialed Thailand’s interim Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai, who reportedly sought “immediate ceasefire and peace.” Trump later boasted on social media: “Trying to simplify a complex situation!”—though critics noted he squeezed these talks between tee times with his son and U.S. Ambassador Warren Stephens.

Economic Leverage in Action

The stakes couldn’t be higher. Last week, Trump slapped a 36% tariff on most exports from both nations, effective August 1. Data from TradingView shows Cambodian and Thai stock markets dipping 2.3% and 1.8% respectively post-announcement. Trump’s latest remarks suggest even harsher measures if the conflict persists. “No trade until the fighting stops,” he reiterated, echoing his 2024 playbook. However, India’s Foreign Ministry previously denied Trump’s claim that trade pressure ended their border clashes—a caveat absent from his current rhetoric.

Historical Context: The India-Pakistan Parallel

Trump frequently cites his (disputed) success in mediating the 2024 India-Pakistan crisis as justification for this hardline approach. “We stopped that fight by threatening their wallets,” he told reporters. Yet leaked diplomatic cables reveal both South Asian nations dismissed U.S. trade threats as irrelevant to security negotiations. This raises questions about whether Cambodia and Thailand—already reeling from existing tariffs—will fold under similar pressure.

The Human Cost vs. Economic Realities

Beyond the macroeconomic chess game, local businesses are panicking. Phnom Penh’s garment exporters (who shipped $3.4B to the U.S. in 2023, per Cambodian Commerce Ministry data) fear bankruptcy if tariffs climb further. Meanwhile, Thai auto parts manufacturers—supplying 12% of U.S. aftermarket imports—are scrambling for EU alternatives. “Trump’s playing with fire,” said a Phuket-based factory owner who requested anonymity. “Our workers didn’t start this war, but they’ll lose their jobs because of it.”

What Comes Next?

With the August 1 tariff deadline looming, both governments face impossible choices: de-escalate militarily amid domestic hawkish sentiment or absorb economic pain that could trigger recessions. The BTCC research team notes that Cambodia’s GDP growth—projected at 5.8% for 2024—could halve under prolonged sanctions. Thailand’s tourism-dependent economy (20% of GDP) is equally vulnerable if U.S. travel advisories follow. One thing’s certain: Trump’s golf-course diplomacy has set a volatile precedent for 21st-century statecraft.

FAQ

What tariffs did Trump impose on Cambodia and Thailand?

A 36% tariff on most exports, effective August 1, 2024—with threats of further increases if the conflict continues.

How did markets react to Trump’s announcement?

Cambodia’s CSX index dropped 2.3%, while Thailand’s SET fell 1.8% within 24 hours (source: TradingView).

Has this strategy worked before?

Trump claims it resolved India-Pakistan tensions in 2024, but Indian officials deny trade was ever discussed in security talks.