Most Expensive Car? Middle East Conflict May Impact Automakers, but Anfavea Uncertain on Timing and Extent

• Anfavea's Concerns Over Middle East Conflict
• Used Vehicle Prices Slow Down to 0.55% Increase in February, Reports IBV Auto
• FAQs

The ongoing Middle East conflicts have raised concerns among Brazilian automakers about potential disruptions in supply chains and rising costs. Anfavea, the association representing these manufacturers, is closely monitoring the situation but remains uncertain about the full impact. Meanwhile, the used car market shows unexpected resilience, with prices rising despite high-interest rates. This article delves into the challenges faced by the automotive industry and the surprising trends in the used car sector.

Anfavea's Concerns Over Middle East Conflict

The direction of Anfavea, the entity representing automakers, is closely monitoring the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East with growing concern. However, they still lack a clear assessment of the potential impact on costs and parts supply for factories. "The simplest answer is: yes, it can affect us, not only through oil prices and the soaring dollar—which influences component imports—but also through the logistical costs of parts we need," commented Anfavea's president, Igor Calvet, during the presentation of the sector's results in February.

Beyond the impact on material costs and freight, the productive sector is worried about delays in parts supply due to obstructions in maritime transport routes that depend on the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal. "We've been talking to some automakers, but this measurement of the impact isn't very clear yet. It could affect us, but I don't know when or how much," Calvet stated. He added that Anfavea hasn't received any reports of supply interruptions so far. "We're monitoring the situation, but we still have no idea when this might happen, let alone the overall impact on our sector, especially for trucks," the executive concluded.

Used Vehicle Prices Slow Down to 0.55% Increase in February, Reports IBV Auto

Used light vehicle prices decelerated in February across the country. The IBV Auto index, produced by BV Bank, recorded a 0.55% increase in the second month of 2026, following a 0.90% expansion in January, which had marked the highest monthly variation in six years. However, over the 12 months ending in February, the index advanced by 6.60%, the highest level since March 2023, according to a report shared with Broadcast, the real-time news system of Grupo Estado.

BV's chief economist, Roberto Padovani, noted that the indicator shows persistent growth, suggesting strength, resilience, and a potential economic recovery. Despite the slower inflation rate for used vehicles in February compared to the previous month, the 12-month cumulative rate supports the view of an expanding market. "More than just the rise in used vehicle prices, what stands out is the pace of acceleration—the rate recorded in December was 5.31%," Padovani said.

Defying Seasonality

IBV Auto data for the first quarter defies seasonality, even in a high-interest-rate environment where used car sales are typically more subdued. Another point highlighted by the bank is that, with new car prices under pressure, some buyers are shifting to the used car market, reinforcing this dynamic. "The highest price increase for February since 2022, combined with January's rise, signals a heating used car market at the start of the year," the report stated.

Regional Trends

By region, the Midwest saw the highest inflation in used vehicle prices between January and February, at 0.77%, driven primarily by Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul. The IBV Auto index ROSE across all Brazilian states in February compared to January 2026, with Amazonas leading at 1.19%, while Rondônia had the smallest increase at 0.06%. Over the 12 months ending in February, the three highest variations were recorded in Rondônia (7.67%), Amazonas (7.63%), and Tocantins (7.49%). The lowest was in Espírito Santo, at 4.46% (0.21% margin).

FAQs

How is the Middle East conflict affecting Brazilian automakers?

Anfavea reports potential impacts on supply chains and costs due to disruptions in maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz and Suez Canal, but the full extent remains unclear.

Why are used car prices rising despite high interest rates?

The IBV Auto index suggests a shift in buyer preference from new to used cars due to price pressures, driving demand and inflation in the used car market.

Which regions in Brazil saw the highest used car price increases?

The Midwest, particularly Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, led with a 0.77% increase, while Rondônia had the smallest rise at 0.06%.