Cosan (CSAN3): After a Year to Forget, Will 2026 Be Better? Analysts Say Yes

• Why Did Cosan (CSAN3) Struggle in 2025?
• What’s Changing in 2026?
• How Does Cosan’s Valuation Look Now?
• FAQ: Your Burning Cosan Questions, Answered

Cosan (CSAN3), the Brazilian conglomerate with stakes in energy, logistics, and more, had a rough 2025—but analysts are betting on a strong rebound in 2026. With strategic shifts and sector tailwinds, here’s why experts (and some bruised investors) are cautiously optimistic. Spoiler: sugar, ethanol, and Raízen’s IPO whispers play starring roles.

Why Did Cosan (CSAN3) Struggle in 2025?

Let’s not sugarcoat it—2025 was a year most Cosan shareholders WOULD rather forget. Between volatile commodity prices, regulatory hiccups in Brazil’s energy sector, and Raízen’s (their bioenergy JV with Shell) delayed expansion plans, the stock dipped nearly 18% peak-to-trough. "It was a perfect storm," admits a BTCC analyst who tracks emerging-market equities. "But Cosan’s diversified model acts as a shock absorber." Data from TradingView shows CSAN3 underperforming the Bovespa Index by 12% last year—ouch.

What’s Changing in 2026?

Three words: positioning, policy, and patience. The Brazilian government’s new biofuels mandate (kicking in Q2 2026) could boost Raízen’s margins by 22%, per Goldman Sachs projections. Meanwhile, Cosan’s logistics arm, Rumo, is finally overcoming railway bottlenecks. "We’re seeing infrastructure investments pay off," says industry veteran Luiz Carlos Mendonça. Oh, and whispers about Raízen eyeing a NYSE listing? That’s the speculative icing on the cake.

How Does Cosan’s Valuation Look Now?

At a P/E of 9.3, CSAN3 trades at a 30% discount to its 5-year average—arguably pricing in the past woes. "This is a classic ‘hate the player, not the game’ scenario," quips our BTCC team. With EBITDA projected to grow 14% YoY (Refinitiv consensus), value hunters are circling. Just don’t expect a smooth ride; sugar futures’ volatility remains a swing factor.

FAQ: Your Burning Cosan Questions, Answered

Is Cosan a good dividend stock for 2026?

Historically yes—it’s yielded 5-7%. But with Raízen’s capex needs, payouts might stabilize rather than soar.

What’s the biggest risk to Cosan’s recovery?

Policy shifts. If Brazil dials back ethanol blending rules, 30% of their revenue could face headwinds.

Why do analysts mention 2026 as a turnaround year?

Infrastructure projects mature, Raízen’s expansion goes live, and commodity cycles align—on paper.