Evonik Stock: Analyst Panic in 2024 – What’s Behind the Crash?
- Why Are Analysts Hitting the Panic Button on Evonik?
- 2027 Targets: Fantasy or Reality?
- Germany’s Gas Crisis: Evonik’s Ticking Time Bomb
- The Analyst Bloodbath: Who’s Bailing?
- FAQs: Your Burning Questions Answered
Evonik Industries, the German specialty chemicals giant, is facing a full-blown crisis as analysts sound alarm bells. With two profit warnings in a year, plummeting EBITDA margins, and a gas supply nightmare looming, the stock has crashed to 52-week lows. Kepler Cheuvreux slashed its price target by 16.6%, while Goldman Sachs issued a "Sell" rating. This DEEP dive reveals why 40% of production is at risk, how 2027 targets became pipe dreams, and whether this is a buying opportunity or a value trap. Buckle up for a rollercoaster of bad news and hard data.
Why Are Analysts Hitting the Panic Button on Evonik?
The BTCC research team has been tracking Evonik's meltdown since Q3 earnings dropped like a lead balloon. Kepler Cheuvreux didn't just downgrade the stock – they nuked it, cutting the target to €12.60 (from €15.10) and slapping a "Reduce" rating. The numbers tell a horror story: EBITDA crashed 22% YoY to €448M, margins collapsed 190bps to 13.2%, and sales shriveled by 11.5%. Even worse? Management axed full-year EBITDA guidance from €2.3B to ~€1.9B. As one Frankfurt trader told me last week, "This isn't a correction – it's a capitulation."
2027 Targets: Fantasy or Reality?
Remember Evonik's bold €2.7B EBITDA target for 2027? Kepler calls BS, projecting just €2.0B (26% below target). Their 2026 estimate (€1.88B) suggests stagnation. The real killer? ROCE projections of 6.4-7.4% through 2027 – a full 460bps below the 11% target. With capital costs at 8.2%, this math spells "value destruction" in flashing neon lights. "They're burning cash at these returns," noted a London-based chemicals analyst who requested anonymity.
| Metric | Company Target | Kepler Forecast | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 EBITDA | €2.7B | €2.0B | -26% |
| 2026 ROCE | 11% | 6.5% | -450bps |
Germany’s Gas Crisis: Evonik’s Ticking Time Bomb
Here's where it gets scary. German gas storage sits at 67.1% (vs. 90.3% seasonal avg). Kepler calculates each week of production stoppage WOULD slash 2026 EBIT by €45M (5.3%). A 19-week outage? Wipes out the entire year's profit. With 40% of production in Germany, Evonik's playing Russian roulette with energy supply. "This isn't priced in," warned a BTCC market strategist. "One cold snap could trigger margin calls on derivatives."
The Analyst Bloodbath: Who’s Bailing?
Kepler isn't alone in the bear camp:
- Goldman Sachs: "Sell" (€11.60 target)
- JPMorgan: "Neutral" (€14.00)
- Jefferies: "Underperform" (€12.20)
The stock's down 22.1% YTD, underperforming EU chemicals by 16 percentage points. At €13.04, it trades 24% below its 200-day MA. The RSI of 15.8 screams oversold – but with fundamentals this bad, catching the falling knife could mean losing fingers.
FAQs: Your Burning Questions Answered
Should I buy Evonik stock now?
With negative ROCE and existential gas risks, value investors should wait for stabilization. Momentum traders might gamble on a dead-cat bounce, but the BTCC team sees better opportunities elsewhere in materials.
How reliable are the 2027 targets?
Given the 26% gap between company projections and analyst estimates, treat long-term guidance with extreme skepticism. The specialty chemicals market has fundamentally shifted post-energy crisis.
What’s the biggest risk analysts are missing?
Contagion risk from BASF/Lanxess struggles could trigger sector-wide multiple compression. Also watch for covenant breaches if EBITDA dips below €1.7B.
