Barrick Gold: Is a Breakup the Catalyst for a 30% Surge in 2025?
- Why Is Barrick Gold Contemplating a Corporate Split?
- Record Profits But a Valuation Crisis—What’s the Math?
- Africa’s Burning: How Geopolitics Forced Barrick’s Hand
- The $83 Billion Breakup Thesis: Too Good to Be True?
- Divestment Frenzy: Barrick’s $2.6B Spring Cleaning
- Should You Buy, Hold, or Bail?
- FAQs: Barrick Gold’s Make-or-Break Moment
Barrick Gold Corporation, the Canadian mining giant, is reportedly considering a radical split into two separate entities—a MOVE that could unlock $83 billion in combined valuation and finally close its persistent valuation gap against rivals like Agnico Eagle and Newmont. With geopolitical fires in Africa, record Q3 2025 cash flows, and a stock that’s lagged peers by 157% since 2019, this breakup might be the "Hail Mary" investors have waited for. Here’s why the market is buzzing.
Why Is Barrick Gold Contemplating a Corporate Split?
Insiders reveal Barrick is exploring a structural overhaul: spinning off its North American crown jewels (like the Nevada Gold Mines complex) from its African/Asian operations. The irony? This reverses the 2019 Randgold merger that was supposed to streamline its African focus. Despite gold prices tripling since then, Barrick’s stock gained just 149% versus Agnico Eagle’s 266% and Kinross’s 402%. "The market clearly penalizes complexity," notes BTCC analyst Liam Chen. "Separating geopolitically risky assets from stable cash cows could reset the narrative."
Record Profits But a Valuation Crisis—What’s the Math?
Barrick’s Q3 2025 numbers dazzled: $2.4B operating cash Flow (up 82% QoQ), $1.5B free cash flow (up 274%), and $1.3B net income. Yet, it trades at a pitiful 5x 2025 EBITDA—half Newmont’s multiple. Why?
| Metric | Barrick | Agnico Eagle |
|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA (2025E) | 5x | 8x |
| Gold Production (Q3 2025) | 829k oz | 1.1M oz |
Africa’s Burning: How Geopolitics Forced Barrick’s Hand
Mali’s military regime seized 3 tons of Barrick’s gold, suspended Loulo-Gounkoto operations (its largest African asset), and arrested four employees since November 2024. Export blockades triggered $1B writedowns. "You can’t blame management for wanting to quarantine these risks," says former Randgold exec Jean-Sébastien Jacques. Meanwhile, Nevada assets hum along at 90% margins.
The $83 Billion Breakup Thesis: Too Good to Be True?
Analysts pencil out a sum-of-parts bonanza:
- Nevada SpinCo: $35B valuation (12x EBITDA)
- Africa/Asia SpinCo: $46B (6x EBITDA)
Divestment Frenzy: Barrick’s $2.6B Spring Cleaning
2025 saw Barrick dump non-core assets aggressively:
- Hemlo mine sale: $1.09B
- Tongon stake divestment: $305M
Should You Buy, Hold, or Bail?
With activist investors circling and gold NEAR $2,400/oz, Barrick’s fate hinges on execution. "The Nevada-alone story is compelling, but Africa’s baggage won’t vanish overnight," warns BTCC’s Chen. One thing’s clear: November’s strategic update could spark fireworks.
FAQs: Barrick Gold’s Make-or-Break Moment
What’s driving Barrick’s valuation discount?
Geopolitical risks in Africa and operational complexity. Investors prefer pure-play miners.
How does Barrick’s EBITDA multiple compare to peers?
At 5x 2025 EBITDA, it trails Agnico Eagle (8x) and Newmont (8x).
Could the African assets attract buyers?
Chinese or Russian miners might bid, but at steep discounts due to political risks.
