US May Greenlight Nvidia’s Blackwell Chip Sales to China by 2025, Says Treasury Secretary
- Why the US Might Allow Blackwell Chip Exports to China
- The Geopolitical Chessboard: Upcoming US-China Summits
- Nvidia's Cautious Stance on Chinese Market Access
- The Bigger Picture: Tech Trade Tensions
- FAQ: Nvidia Chip Exports and US-China Tech Trade
In a surprising twist that could reshape the semiconductor trade landscape, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that Nvidia's cutting-edge Blackwell AI chips might get export approval to China within the next year. While currently considered the "crown jewels" of AI technology, Bessent suggests their rapid obsolescence could soon make them eligible for Chinese buyers. This development comes amid warming US-China relations and multiple planned high-level meetings between the nations' leaders.
Why the US Might Allow Blackwell Chip Exports to China
Treasury Secretary Bessent dropped this bombshell during a CNBC interview, calling Nvidia's Blackwell processors the current "crown jewels" of AI technology. However, he noted that in the fast-moving chip industry, today's cutting-edge becomes tomorrow's commodity. "Given Nvidia's incredible innovation pace," Bessent explained, "Blackwell chips might rank 3rd or 4th in their product stack within 12-24 months, potentially making them eligible for export."
The semiconductor expert from BTCC's research team points out that this mirrors historical patterns where export controls gradually loosen as technology matures. "We've seen this dance before with previous chip generations," they noted. "What's novel is the explicit timeframe being floated by a senior official."
The Geopolitical Chessboard: Upcoming US-China Summits
Bessent revealed an ambitious diplomatic calendar that could facilitate tech trade negotiations:
- December 2025: Potential Trump-Xi meeting at G20 in Doral, Florida
- November 2025: APEC conference in Shenzhen, China
- Two state visits: President Trump to Beijing and President Xi to US
"The relationship is on much more even keel now," Bessent observed, suggesting these high-level engagements could create favorable conditions for resolving tech trade disputes. The BTCC analyst cautions, however, that "semiconductor exports remain one of the most sensitive pressure points in bilateral relations."
Nvidia's Cautious Stance on Chinese Market Access
When pressed about potential Blackwell sales to China, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang gave a characteristically measured response: "I don't know. I hope so someday." His recent meeting with Chinese trade official Ren Hongbin notably didn't include chip sales discussions, suggesting both sides are proceeding cautiously.
Industry insiders speculate that Nvidia might develop modified versions of Blackwell chips for the Chinese market, as it's done previously to comply with export controls. "They're walking a tightrope," observes a semiconductor analyst. "The Chinese market represents about 20% of Nvidia's revenue, but they can't afford to antagonize US regulators."
The Bigger Picture: Tech Trade Tensions
This potential policy shift comes as both nations grapple with competing priorities:
| US Interests | China's Demands |
|---|---|
| Maintaining tech leadership | Access to advanced AI chips |
| Protecting national security | Sustaining tech industry growth |
| Supporting domestic semiconductor firms | Reducing reliance on foreign chips |
The BTCC research team notes that Chinese tech firms continue seeking Nvidia products despite domestic alternatives, valuing their superior performance for AI workloads. How this chip dilemma resolves could set the tone for broader tech trade relations.
FAQ: Nvidia Chip Exports and US-China Tech Trade
What are Nvidia's Blackwell chips?
Blackwell represents Nvidia's newest generation of AI accelerator chips, currently the most advanced for artificial intelligence workloads. They're named after mathematician David Blackwell.
Why would the US allow their export to China?
As Secretary Bessent noted, rapid technological advancement could make these chips less strategically sensitive within 1-2 years, while maintaining controls could hurt US firms' competitiveness.
How important is the Chinese market to Nvidia?
China historically accounted for about 20-25% of Nvidia's revenue before recent export restrictions. Regaining full access could significantly boost their financial performance.
What alternatives do Chinese firms have?
While domestic options like Huawei's Ascend chips exist, most AI researchers still prefer Nvidia's products due to their superior software ecosystem and performance.
