Bitcoin’s Next Big Move: 4 Explosive Scenarios That Could Redefine Crypto Markets by 2025

Brace for impact—Bitcoin’s at a crossroads, and the coming months could spark fireworks. Here’s what’s brewing in the charts.

### Scenario 1: The Macro Melt-Up

Wall Street’s latest ETF darling either becomes a trillion-dollar gateway drug for institutions—or a sell-the-news flop. Place your bets.

### Scenario 2: The Halving Hangover

Post-2024 supply shock meets exhausted retail traders. Will miners capitulate or double down? The hash rate doesn’t lie.

### Scenario 3: Regulatory Roulette

The SEC’s next enforcement target could send BTC into exile—or legitimize it faster than a Goldman Sachs research report.

### Scenario 4: The Black Swan Buffet

Tether implodes? CBDCs attack? Elon tweets a Satoshi haiku? Crypto’s never short on chaos catalysts.

One thing’s clear: while traditional finance debates ‘store of value,’ Bitcoin’s busy rewriting the rules. Again. (And your bank manager still doesn’t get it.)

• Wedson outlines four Bitcoin price scenarios, with a bullish target of $140K to $146K and altcoins gaining strength in July.
• Three bearish scenarios suggest a risk of price declines, with potential for bull traps and liquidity hunts at lower levels.
• Bitcoin’s trading volume surged by 155.57%, but liquidations show a high risk of volatility, potentially triggering significant price drops.

Analyst Joao Wedson has defined four potential outcomes regarding the price of Bitcoin (BTC) based on one of the theories, the theory of Richard Wyckoff and price cycle analysis. These scenarios provide a road map for the possible trends of BTC in the medium term. With BTC dominance and market sentiment being a factor, investors are keeping an eye on its price action to see what it will do next.

The former scenario, or rather the Decay Cycle with an Altcoin Opportunity scenario, posits that in the approaching months, BTC will target a peak between $140K to 146K. This WOULD be following the pattern of BTC, which usually adheres to a predictable trend regardless of any short-term changes. 

Source: X

Altcoins, in this case, would make their gains beginning in July giving opportunities available to traders to diversify their portfolios. Such a situation would only strengthen the notion that the price cycles in bitcoin are tied with more fundamental trends than direct news or market sentiment.

Bitcoin Cycles Hold Steady Despite Short-Term Risks

Wedson pointed out that, should the situation materialize, then it would affirm that the cycles of Bitcoin are relatively insensitive to transient market events. Although the risk of adverse news or events will exist, the price trend of Bitcoin in the long term would still hold. BTC would still be going through its natural price cycle, and altcoins would experience this upwards trend. Such a scenario provides a brighter picture of BTC since the cryptocurrency would be in a bullish market in the near future.

On the other hand, Wedson also came up with three bearish scenarios. These situations indicate possible selling periods in BTC, and the probability of a reduction in prices is more likely. Such phases would probably consist of bull traps and liquidity hunts at reduced prices. 

Source: X

In such situations, the price of Bitcoin would most likely drop in the medium-term and investors would suffer extensive short-term losses. These trends would denote that the upward trend of Bitcoin could be in danger, and the market fundamentals would require great attention.

BTC Faces Volatility and Liquidity Risks

The bear scenarios, which are termed as 2, 3 and 4 Distribution Schematics, propose that BTC may still experience more volatility. Such situations demonstrate that there are high chances of critical liquidity hunts and market manipulation leading to harsh drops in prices. 

Source: X

The failure of Bitcoin to sustain key support levels may result in sustained downward pressure. This would make the risk of a long-term bearish trend rise, and BTC might fall to significantly lower price levels, which would be a problem for investors.

Coinglass data revealed that the trading volume of BTC has increased by 155.57% to reach 148.73 billion. Nonetheless, open interest is experiencing a minor decrease of 0.10 %, which is currently at $67.33 billion. The BTC OI-weighted funding rate is now at 0.0046%, which shows certain reluctance in the market.

The liquidated value of the past 24 hours in BTC shows the total liquidation of $255.07 million. The long liquidations amount to $207.37 million, whereas the short liquidations are comparably low at 4.71 million. 

Source: Coinglass

The four scenarios, provided by Wedson, provide a complex picture of the possible movements in the price of Bitcoin. Although the initial case predicts a bullish tendency, the other three options are bearish, indicating the risk that can push market rates down. As the degree of liquidity and liquidation rates develop, investors should observe the price behavior of Bitcoin in the next few weeks.

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