XRP Rockets to ETF Frontrunner Status with 95% Approval Probability
XRP just became Wall Street's hottest ETF bet—and the suits are scrambling to catch up.
Ripple's native token surged after analysts slapped a 95% likelihood on SEC approval for an XRP exchange-traded fund. The crypto's price action suggests traders are already pricing in the green light—classic 'buy the rumor' behavior before the suits even finish their due diligence.
Why the sudden confidence? Insiders point to Ripple's recent courtroom wins and growing institutional demand for crypto exposure without the custody headaches. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETF issuers are sweating—their first-mover advantage just got a serious competitor.
One hedge fund manager (who requested anonymity) quipped: 'We'll all pretend this was about utility, not the fees we can extract from retail.' The SEC hasn't commented—but the market's voting with its wallet.
- XRP now holds a 95% ETF approval chance, up from 75%, reflecting rising institutional confidence.
- XRP’s final SEC decision deadline is October 17, 2025, backed by Grayscale and Bitwise.
- Bitcoin’s IBIT ETF hit $70B in assets, fueling demand for XRP and Solana ETFs.
Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have significantly raised the odds for crypto ETF approvals, signaling a bullish regulatory outlook. Notably, XRP now holds a 95% chance of ETF approval in 2025, up from earlier projections near 75%.
The analysts noted increasing Optimism from the SEC, pointing to “very positive” interactions in recent weeks. Balchunas and Seyffart believe approval of most crypto ETFs is now “90% or higher.” Their assessment suggests a major shift in how the SEC views digital assets and their place within traditional financial markets.
XRP, Solana, and Litecoin Now Front-Runners
The SEC appears to view assets like XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, and Litecoin as commodities, which places them outside its core regulatory oversight. The classification, according to analysts, dramatically improves approval odds. XRP’s January 30 filing, backed by major firms such as Grayscale and Bitwise, is seen as particularly strong.
XRP’s final SEC decision deadline is set for October 17, 2025. Analysts cite existing CFTC-regulated Ripple futures as further proof of a strong regulatory framework. This infrastructure helps reinforce the case for an ETF. With institutional momentum growing, many now see Ripple’s approval as almost inevitable.
Solana and Litecoin also sit at 95% approval odds, following similar patterns. Solana’s application, with a final decision deadline on October 10, has backing from top asset managers. These assets are seen as the next in line to follow Bitcoin’s ETF success, especially due to their commodity designation and market maturity.
Read Also: XRP Eyes $3.61? Five Powerful Indicators Signal Imminent Breakout
Ripple and Bitcoin Drive ETF Momentum
Bitcoin’s ETF rollout set a historic benchmark. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) became the most successful ETF launch in U.S. history, reaching $70 billion in assets in under a year. This success is motivating asset managers to push for similar products tied to major altcoins like Ripple and Solana.
Franklin Templeton’s XRP and solana ETF projects are now open for public feedback. By now, the market experts like Seyffart have predicted that the green light for the bills will indeed come by summer, or it might even be postponed until October. But, the question is no longer “if,” but “when.” The surge in Ripple is a clear signal of rising asset trust by institutions.
It is remarkable that despite the legal issues in the past, XRP’s turnaround is striking. The cryptocurrency that was considered a regulatory risk is now the top choice of ETFs. With a 95% probability of approval and the presence of major industry players such as BlackRock, Ripple’s path to ETF status is clearer than ever. The 2025 crypto ETF race is heating up fast.
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