Bitcoin’s Perfect Storm: Fed Jitters, Whale Dumps & the $94K Make-or-Break Moment

Bitcoin traders are white-knuckling through a trifecta of volatility triggers this week. The Fed's rate decision looms like a Sword of Damocles, while exchange wallets hemorrhage BTC at levels not seen since the last cycle top.

Meanwhile, the $94K resistance level has become crypto's new Rorschach test—bulls see a springboard to six figures, bears see another bull trap. And Wall Street? They're still trying to short it with leverage.

One thing's certain: when the Fed speaks tomorrow, the market will move faster than a degen spotting a 100x leverage button. Whether that pumps us to new highs or triggers a cascade of liquidations depends on who blinks first—the institutional bagholders or the diamond-handed OGs.

• Bitcoin remains inactive as global tensions and market uncertainty, including the Israel-Iran conflict and Fed rate decisions, hold investors back.
• Data reveals a surge in online chatter, with President Trump criticizing the Fed’s decision, increasing market volatility, and raising rate cut hopes.
• Short-term holders of Bitcoin are selling at a loss, creating an opportunity for long-term holders to accumulate coins and stabilize the market.

Bitcoin has not been the most active currency this past week amid global tensions and market uncertainty. A military clash between Israel and Iran has traders hesitant before the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. These two together have sidelined many investors and traders waiting to see more signs of direction in the market.

Data analytics service Santiment registered a huge surge in online chatter. This was following President Trump, who criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates. crypto markets, like global stocks, would likely benefit from the Fed’s future rate reductions. This is a possible aspect that is making the crypto world a bit volatile.

Source: X

Fed Tensions Fuel Bitcoin’s Panic Selling

The ongoing dispute between the Federal Reserve and TRUMP over monetary policy is unlikely to subside anytime soon. Trump will most probably induce Powell to reduce the rates in order to boost up the economy. 

However, Powell will likely be opposed, with an eye on taking a more conservative stance on the data of long-term economic stability and inflation rates. The market is keeping participants on tenterhooks as this tension continues.

According to CryptoQuant data on-chain, short-term holders (STHs) of Bitcoin are transferring BTC to new addresses at a loss. This has resulted in over 15,000 BTC sold at a loss this week in a characteristic spate of panic selling. 

Source: CryptoQuant

The Glassnode data found that 959 BTC was deposited in exchanges on Monday at a loss, which increased to 16,700 BTC on Wednesday. This action is associated with a fall in price from $106,500 to $103,500.

This action is typical of short-term holders, as they tend to sell during periods of decline, at a loss. The latter are the so-called weak hands who are likely to leave the market when the prices decline. Consequently, the long-term owners (LTHs) buy significant numbers of the coins, and they are perceived as strong hands. The transition of STHs to LTHs assists in stabilizing the market and in creating a more solid market base.

Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin Faces Support Zone as Weak Hands Exit

The total amount of bitcoin held by the short-term holders has decreased dramatically. This decline, especially when the markets have been corrected, decreases selling pressure due to weak hands. It opens a market to new buyers, which potentially paves the way for a future price rise. The more BTC goes to long-term holders, the more stable the market is.

According to data provided by Swissblock, the current situation in Bitcoin shows a blind spot. The subsequent selling pressure, which can be seen in the negative spot volume delta since June 2025, indicates that the demand is not going to decrease in the short run. 

Source: Swissblock

Although the price of Bitcoin recovered a little, the absence of a significant buying volume indicates the possibility of another decline. This dip may continue before any significant break out.

The short-term holders of Bitcoin are likely to encounter a support range of approximately $94,000 to $97,000. This area of prices may serve as a bottom in the neighbourhood. The market could regain its footing by the time the level of liquidation is tested at $100,000. A new demand WOULD be an impetus that would drive the price of Bitcoin higher.