Dogecoin’s Rare Bearish MACD Crossover Signals Potential Plunge to $0.12—Is the Meme Coin Losing Its Bite?

Dogecoin just flashed a warning sign that hasn't appeared in years—and traders are bracing for impact.

The meme cryptocurrency's MACD indicator triggered a rare bearish crossover, historically a precursor to steep declines. With DOGE now eyeing a drop toward $0.12, the so-called 'people's crypto' might need more than Elon Musk tweets to stay afloat.

Technical breakdown: When the moving averages that form this momentum indicator cross downward, it often marks the end of a rally. The last time this happened? A 40% monthly crash followed.

Market veterans know these signals don't guarantee doom—but when a coin that runs on hype loses momentum, the fall can be brutal. Remember: this is an asset where 'fundamentals' once meant a Shiba Inu meme and a Reddit thread.

Whether this proves to be a temporary dip or the start of something uglier, one thing's certain: in crypto, even the dogs eventually have their day... just ask the bagholders of 2021's 'next Bitcoin'.

• Dogecoin has triggered its rare third-ever bearish MACD crossover on the monthly chart, historically signaling prolonged price weakness.
• Previous bearish MACD crosses in 2018 and 2022 led to major downturns and extended bear market phases for DOGE.
• The current macroeconomic uncertainties and tightening monetary policies amplify downside risks amid this bearish signal.

Dogecoin (DOGE) is signaling caution for investors as it prints its third-ever bearish MACD crossover on the monthly chart. This is a technical event that has historically foreshadowed extended periods of price weakness for the popular altcoin. This development, highlighted recently by crypto analytics account Bitcoinsensus, raises concerns about the potential for a prolonged slowdown in Dogecoin’s price momentum amid an already uncertain market environment.

At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.1711 with a 24-hour trading volume of $2.27B and a market cap of $25.63B. The Doge price decreased by 0.29% in the last 24 hours.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is one of the most closely watched tools in technical analysis. It measures the relationship between two moving averages of an asset’s price and helps identify momentum shifts. A bearish MACD crossover occurs when the MACD line crosses below the signal line, signaling a potential trend reversal to the downside. While such signals can occur frequently on lower timeframes, a monthly chart crossover carries greater weight as it reflects longer-term shifts in market sentiment.

For Dogecoin, this bearish MACD cross is only the third in its trading history, making it a rare and significant event. The first two instances, in 2018 and 2022, coincided with major market downturns for DOGE. In 2018, the bearish crossover preceded a multi-month cooldown that erased much of the gains from Dogecoin’s earlier rally. Then, in 2022, the same technical pattern marked the beginning of a full bear market phase, during which DOGE’s price declined sharply and remained subdued for an extended period.

Dogecoin Bears Return Third MACD Crossover Signals Risk

Now, as the third bearish crossover unfolds in 2025, traders and investors are watching closely. The current market backdrop adds further complexity. Macroeconomic uncertainties, tightening monetary policies, and broader crypto market compression are creating an environment where downside risks are elevated. The MACD signal in this context acts as a warning that Dogecoin’s price may be vulnerable to additional declines or a longer consolidation phase.

Bitcoinsensus made it clear while speaking about this indicator historical value, that they are “this time could potentially be different” aware of the same. Market change, and what was in the past does not necessarily prevail in the future. Nevertheless, the repetition of said rare bearish crossover along with the mounting external pressures still highlights cautious positioning as being important for Doge holders.

The attached charts provided along with the sentiment the three bearish MACD crosses on Dogecli’s monthly chart is enough to tell us that those retracements and bear phases were very significant. The decision not to deviate from such an example is a kind of nod to recent events, in that very wide-ranging changes in dynamics will undoubtedly affect the price action for some months.

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