Bitcoin’s Next ATH: Is 2025 the Year It Peaks—Or Will 2026 Steal the Crown?

Bitcoin’s halving cycle has traders glued to charts—again. The math says 2025 should be the top. The market laughs at math.

Halving Hype vs. Reality Check

Four-year cycles aren’t destiny, but they’ve nailed Bitcoin’s peaks since 2013. This time? Institutional money’s playing a new game—with leverage even Wall Street would call reckless.

The ETF Effect: Fuel or Fizzle?

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF sucked in $30B faster than a degenerate gambler at a roulette table. Now pension funds are ‘diversifying’—because nothing says retirement security like volatile digital gold.

2026 Wildcards: Regulations, Rivals, and Rate Cuts

The SEC could crush the party with stablecoin crackdowns. Ethereum might finally flip Bitcoin. Or Jerome Powell could print another trillion dollars—bullish even for Dogecoin.

Peak Prediction: Flip a Coin

Analysts swear 2025’s the top. The same analysts who missed FTX’s collapse. One truth remains: When your Uber driver starts quoting Fibonacci retracements, sell.

• Bitcoin faces crucial support at $104,180 and $102,435; failure to hold may signal more downside.
• A breakout above $100K could trigger a rally, with targets at $109,787, $113,071, and $115,966.
• Potential Bitcoin cycle top may occur in September 2025 or March 2026, based on the 200-week SMA.

Bitcoin is in the process of going through a crucial stage in a falling wedge formation. The crypto has recently been rejected at the upper trendline and is currently approaching a major retracement area. Analyst Rose Premium Signals highlighted that traders must monitor Fibonacci support at $104,180 and $102,435 as these are possible areas where Bitcoin might stabilize. A failure to retain these levels could indicate more downside.

Bitcoin still has a solid support level at the 100,000 dollar mark. A breakout of this level WOULD mean a potent rally in BTC in the future. Traders are eying possible breakout levels of $109,787, $113,071, and $115,966. A confirmed breakout above the wedge formation may result in a significant bullish rally. However, it will take a high trading volume to confirm such a move and ensure the continuation of the rally higher.

Source: X

Analyst Egrag Crypto has recently revealed a new perspective on Bitcoin’s market cycles, drawing on the analysis of Benjamin Cowen from IntoCryptoverse. According to the theory presented by Cowen, there is a relation between the past all-time highs (ATH) of bitcoin and the 200-week simple moving average (SMA). The peaks of the cycles have been very close to the crossing of these two metrics in the previous cycles, creating a pattern that allows predicting the price behavior of Bitcoins.

Bitcoin Cycle Patterns

In Cycle A, the highest point of the cycle was the all-time high of Bitcoin, reaching the 200-week SMA. The same trend was witnessed in Cycle B, which validates the validity of this theory. Cycle C was a little bit different, though, because the cycle top was late by approximately 42 days. It is a deviation that highlights the uncertainty of the market cycles of Bitcoin, which are prone to volatility and externalities.

Source: X

Analyst identifies two possible dates when BTC can FORM the next significant cycle top in September of 2025 and March of 2026. These estimates are made using the action of the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) and its relation to the past peak points of the token. These dates are speculative and only time will tell whether they will be true.

The levels to watch immediately are support at $104,180 and $102,435 for BTC traders. These Fibonacci levels will define whether BTC can consolidate within the same price range or a breakout is imminent. The market remains indecisive, and the next few weeks will play an important role in dictating the next major direction of BTC.

Related Reading: Is solana Set to Surge? ETF Hype and $200 Resistance Point to Major Moves