Bitcoin Stumbles Under $108K as Traders Watch Make-or-Break MVRV Threshold

Bitcoin’s price just got rejected at the $108K level—now all eyes are on the MVRV ratio’s 2.93 resistance. Will this be the springboard for another leg up, or just another entry in crypto’s hall of fakeouts?

Analysts are sweating the MVRV metric like Wall Street sweats its morning espresso orders. Meanwhile, traditional finance still can’t decide if Bitcoin’s a ’store of value’ or a ’speculative asset’—maybe because they’re still using fax machines.

• Bitcoin is trading at $107,838, down 0.93% on the day but up 14% over the past month.
• MVRV is at 2.36, above the SMA365 level of 2.14; resistance looms at 2.93.
• Analyst Willy Woo warns weak buying could lead to weeks of sideways Bitcoin trading.

Bitcoin is now trading at $107,838, slipping by 0.93% in the last 24 hours. But this minor dip hasn’t shaken the broader trend. Over the past month, Bitcoin has risen by roughly 14%, showing strong gains despite short-term pullbacks.

On May 22, bitcoin set a new record just below $112,000. The rise extended the bullish run that has dominated the second quarter of 2025. From April to May, the price moved sharply upward, especially after crossing some key market indicators.

Market analyst Burak Kesmeci, writing on CryptoQuant, pointed to the Market Value to Realized Value ratio, or MVRV, as a key indicator to watch. It tracks how much Bitcoin is worth now compared to the price holders paid for it, which helps understand investor behavior and potential turning points.

Current MVRV Near Resistance Level

Kesmeci highlighted the 365-day Simple Moving Average, or SMA365, as a marker that often signals lasting growth when breached. Back in April, the MVRV went above this SMA365 level. At that time, Bitcoin climbed from about $94,000 to above $111,000, capping off a major price surge.

Right now, the MVRV sits at 2.36, staying safely above the 2.14 SMA365 benchmark. But the next resistance point for MVRV stands at 2.93, a level that has acted as a major ceiling in past bull runs. That number has previously triggered slowdowns and reversals.

Kesmeci issued a caution that the current level demands close attention. If the MVRV reaches 2.93 again, the market could stall or correct, depending on how buyers react. He urged traders to watch the data carefully, as such points often lead to sudden shifts in sentiment.

Bitcoin’s Next Move Hinges on Demand

Analyst Willy WOO added to the caution. On May 28, he posted on X that without more buying this week, Bitcoin might head into another long period of sideways trading. The rally that started at $75,000 on April 7 and peaked just under $112,000 on May 22 is “starting to break down,” he said.

“This week is absolutely critical,” Woo wrote. “If we do not get follow-through, then we will be up for another consolidation period.” His warning focused on signs that speculative buyers have entered late, while others may soon cash out profits.

Woo pointed to the Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, which tracks whether Bitcoin is being sold at a profit or loss. According to him, this shows growing tension between eager new buyers and sellers ready to unload. “This week’s spot buying will strongly influence the next 1-2 months of price action. We are in a pivot zone,” he warned.

Despite the short-term risks, Woo found some reason for optimism. He noted that risk signals are easing, and buyer strength is visible in the wider market. This, he said, is helping set the stage for another long-term uptrend.

“We are setting up for another solid run on the long time frame,” Woo added, pointing to strong buy-side liquidity dominating the environment. If buyers keep stepping in, the current dip could prove temporary and part of a larger, healthier cycle.

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