Bitcoin’s Obscure Metric Just Flashed Its Rarest Signal—Here’s What Usually Follows

A cryptic Bitcoin indicator—one most traders ignore—just triggered for the first time since the 2021 bull run. History suggests fireworks ahead... or a spectacular faceplant.

The Whisper Network Goes Loud

On-chain sleuths spotted the signal buried in Bitcoin’s UTXO data—a nerdy way to track dormant coins suddenly on the move. When this particular pattern last appeared, BTC rallied 300% in six months. Cue the ’to-the-moon’ memes.

But Wait—Wall Street’s Knocking

Here’s the catch: the same signal briefly flickered during 2019’s ’false spring.’ That rally got sucker-punched by—surprise—overleveraged institutional traders (who somehow still blame ’retail hype’ for their own blowups).

Whether this time’s different depends on who you ask. Bitcoin maximalists see destiny. Hedge funds see a volatility buffet. And your broker? Probably still pushing a ’diversified portfolio’ of 2% yield bonds.

• Bitcoin reached a high of $104,916, settling at $103,898 after a strong weekly climb.
• The Advanced NVT metric has surged past 2xSD, signaling potential major price movements.
• The funding rate remains stable below 0.01, indicating a more steady market without overheating.

Bitcoin is holding strong above $100,000 after a robust weekly climb. The digital currency hit a high of $104,916 before settling at $103,898. Market watchers are now turning their eyes to on-chain signals that could change the course of Bitcoin’s price movement.

A well-known crypto analyst, Burak Kesmeci, recently posted on X about a spike in the Bitcoin Advanced Network Value to Transaction (NVT) metric. The Advanced NVT is now sitting above a key threshold that often signals major price moves. This could mean Bitcoin is either preparing for a large price rally or facing a major correction.

The Advanced NVT is an updated and more sophisticated iteration of the original NVT indicator. It measures the relationship between Bitcoin’s market cap and its daily blockchain transaction volume in dollars. 

When the Advanced NVT rises above its long-term moving average by over two standard deviations (2xSD), it shows that the cryptocurrency’s value is growing faster than the activity on its blockchain. This mismatch has, in the past, led to sharp rallies or steep corrections.

Bitcoin’s Advanced NVT Surges Past 2xSD

Kesmeci pointed out that Bitcoin’s Advanced NVT has again moved past the 2xSD level. While this doesn’t always last long, it often appears right before a steep upward movement. He reminded followers that in the past, such as during the ETF rally, the NVT surged well beyond 4xSD levels.

In his words, “However, with a parabolic rally, it is possible that it could MOVE much higher than 4xSD. This has happened before with the ETF rally after the approval of Spot ETFs.” Kesmeci also warned that this pattern doesn’t guarantee a rally but is rare enough to watch closely.

He explained that staying above this level might be unusual, but it doesn’t always mean it must fall back. bitcoin could remain at this level if the market continues its bullish momentum. With Bitcoin now at a key price point, the next movement could define its long-term trend.

Stable Funding Rate Indicates Steady Climb

Another voice in the crypto space, CryptoQuant’s analyst Crypto Dan, added to the discussion by looking at a different signal: the funding rate. This tool helps spot when traders are leaning too hard in one direction. According to Dan, the funding rate is now stable and well below the danger zone.

Dan said, “The Market is No Longer Overheated.” He referenced the funding rate’s history, especially when it rose above 0.1 in March and November 2024. Back then, the market quickly pulled back after those spikes, hinting at too much Optimism and heavy leverage.

Now, though, the funding rate has stayed below 0.01. That shows traders are no longer overly confident or taking risky positions. Even with Bitcoin trading close to recent highs, this calm behavior suggests the market might be heading for a more steady climb instead of another wild swing.

Read More | Coinbase Rejects Risky Bitcoin Maximalism for Long Term Stability