XRP Teeters on the Edge: Hold the 0.702 Fibonacci Line or Brace for a 45% Plunge

Ripple’s XRP faces a make-or-break moment as it tests a critical support level. Bulls cling to the 0.702 Fib like Wall Street clings to outdated fee structures—but another rejection could send prices tumbling to $1.25 faster than a crypto influencer’s credibility after a bad call.

The setup: XRP’s current consolidation looks more fragile than a banker’s ego during a bull market. If the 0.702 Fib fails as support, the next stop could be the 200-day moving average near $1.25—a 45% haircut from current levels.

Watch the volume: Any breakdown below $1.85 needs to happen on weak volume to suggest a bear trap. Otherwise, we’re looking at a textbook Fibonacci failure—the kind that makes technical analysts revise their charts (and their career choices).

Silver lining? A clean bounce here could trigger a 30% rally to retest yearly highs. But in a market where ’fundamentals’ means whatever narrative pumps your bags, technicals might be the only reality check left.

• Ripple (XRP) is trading at $2.19 with a 5.7% weekly gain, but faces short-term bearish pressure below key resistance levels.
• Failure to hold the 0.702 Fibonacci level could lead to a major retest around $1.25.
• Optimism remains strong due to growing spot XRP ETF speculation and Ripple’s progress against the SEC.
• A close above $2.45 could open the door for XRP to push toward $3 or higher by mid-2025.

Ripple (XRP), the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is at a critical juncture as technical analysis points to a potential short-term correction.

XRP is trading at $2.19, with a 24-hour trading volume of $3.2 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. The token has seen a 5.7% increase over the past week, reflecting strong momentum fueled by recent developments.

However, the broader crypto market is showing mixed signals, with Bitcoin (BTC) hovering around $94,000 after a slight 0.76% dip. Despite its recent gains, XRP remains 50% below its all-time high of $3.84, set in January 2018, leaving room for substantial upside if bullish catalysts materialize.

XRP Price Faces Short-Term Bearish Pressure

EGRAG CRYPTO’s analysis, highlights XRP’s current weakness as it trades below the upper edge of the Bull Market Support Band, a key momentum indicator using the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

This band, often a reliable gauge of bullish or bearish trends, has its upper boundary at $2.33–$2.45. According to EGRAG, XRP must close above these levels to dispel bearish sentiment and confirm that a bottom is not yet in sight.

A pivotal element in the analysis is the 0.702 Fibonacci retracement level, which aligns with XRP’s historical breakout structure. Fibonacci levels are widely used in crypto trading to identify potential support and resistance zones, as seen in past market cycles like WAVES’ 65% drawdown in 2022.

If XRP fails to hold this level, EGRAG warns of a “major retest,” potentially driving the price down to $1.25 in the NEAR term, a 35% drop from its current level.

Despite the short-term bearish outlook, EGRAG remains optimistic about XRP’s long-term potential, forecasting double-digit prices in the coming months. This aligns with broader market sentiment, as XRP has already surged 210% year-to-date in 2025, driven by macroeconomic tailwinds and crypto-specific catalysts.

ETF Speculation and Ripple Legal Developments Fuel Optimism

XRP’s recent rally has been propelled by growing speculation around a spot XRP ETF. There is an 87% probability of a spot XRP ETF being approved by the end of 2025. This Optimism is bolstered by Ripple’s legal progress against the SEC.

A recent report highlights delays in the SEC’s appeal decision, fueling speculation of a potential withdrawal. A favorable resolution could pave the way for ETF approvals, significantly boosting XRP’s adoption and price.

What’s Next for XRP in 2025?

The coming weeks will be crucial for XRP as it navigates key technical levels. A close above $2.45 could signal a bullish continuation, potentially pushing XRP toward $3 or higher by mid-2025, as predicted by some analysts like those at CoinCodex, who estimate XRP’s 50-day SMA to hit $2.36 by May 25, 2025. Conversely, a failure to hold the 0.702 Fibonacci level could see EGRAG’s $1.25 prediction come to fruition, offering a buying opportunity for long-term investors.

The broader crypto market will also play a role. If Bitcoin breaks above its all-time high of $109,312, as outlined, altcoins like Ripple could see a significant boost. However, macroeconomic headwinds, such as rising inflation or a hawkish Federal Reserve, could exert downward pressure across the board.

Ripple’s short-term outlook may be bearish, but its long-term fundamentals remain strong. With ETF speculation, legal clarity, and a resilient community backing it, XRP is well-positioned for potential growth in 2025.

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