Market Sentiment Analysis: Why the Current Bitcoin Cycle Lacks Excitement — Insights from CryptoQuant
As Bitcoin continues its cyclical trajectory in 2025, many investors and traders have noted an unusual lack of volatility compared to previous cycles. CryptoQuant’s lead on-chain analyst suggests several factors contributing to this perceived stagnation: institutional adoption has matured price action, derivatives markets have dampened extreme swings, and macroeconomic conditions have created a more stable but less dynamic trading environment. The report highlights how current trading volumes, while substantial, show fewer dramatic spikes, and how the absence of retail frenzy has led to more measured price discovery. However, the analyst cautions that this apparent calm may precede significant movement, as on-chain metrics indicate accumulation by long-term holders at current levels.
- Bitcoin’s short-term holdings are down, indicating minimal engagement from new market entrants.
- Macroeconomic conditions with tight liquidity and high interest rates impact fast-paced market rallies.
- Institutional capital’s influence post-Bitcoin ETF approval has created a more gradual and structured market.
Bitcoin is trading 23% below its January all-time high of $109,000, as of mid-April 2025. Despite lingering bearish sentiment in higher timeframes, the cryptocurrency has rebounded 7.94% in the past week, nearing the key $85,000 level. While the market lacks the excitement of previous cycles, analysts believe this slowdown could signal a deeper structural change rather than stagnation.
In a recent analysis, CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan noted that current trends differ from earlier bull runs. Historically, Bitcoin’s upward moves were fast, driven by intense retail activity and explosive interest. This time, fewer new traders are participating. A much smaller percentage of Bitcoin is held for short durations—between one week and one month, pointing to a market dominated by long-term holders.
Dan suggests two CORE reasons for the change in momentum. The first is a tighter global economic setting. Unlike the 2020–2021 boom, when central banks unleashed massive liquidity and interest rates were close to zero, the present climate involves restricted capital flow and high borrowing costs. These conditions prevent rapid price surges and contribute to the slower rhythm.
Institutional Shift Replaces Retail Frenzy
The second reason, according to Dan, is the growing role of institutional investors since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. Retail traders have gradually taken a backseat. As a result, market movements appear less chaotic and more measured. Dan described this new cycle as one that “intentionally avoids the mania of earlier cycles.”
Dan also cautioned against interpreting the current slow pace as a signal that the cycle has already peaked. While some on-chain data might support that view, he believes it “oversimplifies” a much more complex shift.
According to him, “This cycle may not follow the old pattern of sharp rise followed by crash.” He suggests patience and a long-term outlook may be more useful in navigating the months ahead, especially as ETF inflows remain consistent and broader economic pressures could start easing.
There’s still a good chance that 2025 will deliver meaningful market moves,” Dan noted.
Bitcoin On-Chain Metric Hints at Trend Reversal
Meanwhile, another CryptoQuant analyst, Gaah, highlighted that Bitcoin’s MVRV MA30d—an indicator used to assess price behavior—has dropped to its lowest level in six months. This metric has fallen back into a range that often reflects strong psychological support, between 1.8 and 2.1. This area has historically marked points where corrections halt or new uptrends begin.
The last time it hit a similar low was during Bitcoin’s recent dip to $50,000 That phase was followed by renewed upward movement. The same pattern now appears to be unfolding. Investors, particularly those with short-term positions, are either NEAR break-even or taking small losses. This typically happens when selling pressure fades and prices find a foundation to rise from.
The fear dominating market sentiment today may not be as harmful as it looks. As Gaah points out, previous dips into this zone on the MVRV chart triggered positive reactions in Bitcoin’s price. Several marked rectangles on historical charts show Bitcoin recovering each time the indicator reached the current range.
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