Bitcoin (BTC) Battles Critical $98.5K Threshold: Short-Term Holder Cost Basis in the Crosshairs

Bitcoin's next move hinges on a single, massive price point. The $98,500 level isn't just another number on the chart—it's the average cost basis for short-term holders, and the entire market is watching to see if it holds as support or cracks under pressure.

The Line in the Sand

This isn't about technical analysis squiggles. It's about raw, human psychology. The short-term holder cost basis represents the average price paid by investors who bought within the last 155 days. When the price dances above it, these holders sit pretty with paper profits. But when it dips below? That's when panic selling can erupt, turning a minor correction into a full-blown cascade.

Why This Test Matters Now

All eyes are on the $98.5K zone because it's the last major support before a potential freefall to deeper, more painful levels. If Bitcoin decisively reclaims and holds above this line, it signals that recent buyers remain confident—fueling the next leg up. A failure, however, would confirm that the 'weak hands' are getting shaken out, a necessary but brutal step in any bull market's climb. It's the ultimate sentiment gauge, a multi-billion-dollar mood ring.

The Bigger Picture Play

Forget the day traders. The real story is what this battle tells us about market structure. A successful defense of the short-term holder cost basis often acts as a springboard, proving the rally has sustainable demand behind it. It separates a healthy pullback from a trend reversal. Meanwhile, the long-term holders—the so-called 'diamond hands'—are likely watching from the sidelines, unfazed. They've seen this movie before.

So, will $98,500 hold? The market is voting with every tick. A break below could trigger a wave of stop-losses from the latest batch of crypto tourists who thought this was easy money. But a firm bounce here? That's the stuff new all-time highs are made of. The only certainty is volatility—the kind that gives traditional finance guys heart palpitations and makes them clutch their bond portfolios a little tighter.

Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Comes Into Focus for Bitcoin

According to the on-chain analysis shared by On-Chain College, BTC’s recent action of roughly $2,000 higher or lower can be pondered as “noise” when compared with the importance of the $98,500 zone. This zone indicates the average acquisition value of short-term holders. It is usually defined as traders who have held the token for less than about 155 days.

On-chain charts tracking the STH cost basis indicate BTC continuously interacting with this metric during previous market cycles. In many circumstances, recovering this level has lined up with a new bullish rally. This means that failure to hold it has preceded deeper corrective phases.

According to CoinMarketCap at press time, the coin is trading at $91,199.07 with a 0.26% increase in rate. The market cap of the coin has exceeded $1.82 trillion, and the volume of the token is around $39.9 billion.

According to the data given by CoinCodex, the 200-day simple moving average in the long run is projected to reach $106,552. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) in the short term is projected to reach $89,236. All these figures reflect a gradual but certain movement towards higher ground.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 52.06, indicating a neutral position, neither excessively high nor excessively low. The pivot points have established the support levels at $89,824, $88,597, and $87,745. The resistance levels of the token are at $ 91,902, $92,754, and $93,980.