Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Plunges Below $101K for First Time Since July

Short-term Bitcoin holders are now underwater—and that could signal a major turning point.

The $101K Threshold Breaks

For the first time in months, the average price paid by recent Bitcoin buyers has dipped below the $101,000 mark. This cost basis—the financial bedrock for traders who've held for 155 days or less—just cracked. It's a psychological line in the sand that hadn't been crossed since July.

Why This Metric Matters

Think of the short-term holder cost basis as the market's collective pain point. When price trades below it, recent entrants sit on losses. Historically, sustained periods below this level have either flushed out weak hands, setting a floor, or accelerated panic selling. It separates the conviction buyers from the fair-weather fans.

The Sentiment Shift

This drop isn't just a number on a chart. It's a real-time sentiment gauge flashing amber. The euphoria of new all-time highs? Faded. The narrative now pivots to support tests, holder resilience, and whether long-term investors will see this as a discount or a distress signal.

A Cynical Take

Let's be real—this is the moment where 'digital gold' meets the old-fashioned reality of portfolio statements. Nothing sobers up a crypto bull quite like seeing an entry point that once felt like genius now labeled 'unrealized loss' by some broker's dashboard. The finance industry loves a good story, but it worships a positive P&L.

What's Next?

Watch for volatility. Markets hate uncertainty, and a breached cost basis creates just that. Will it hold as support, or is this the first domino to fall in a broader correction? The next move from here—bounce or breakdown—will tell us more about Bitcoin's near-term health than any analyst prediction.

Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Breaks Key Level

The STH cost basis, as reported by On-Chain College, has slipped to approximately $100,972, indicating that the latest buyers of Bitcoin are, on average, paying lower prices for Bitcoin. Typically, when Bitcoin is seen to be trading below the cost basis of short-term holders, it is a strong indication of growing pressure on the latest market participants, usually accompanied by a phase of market correction.

Additionally, according to the analyst, if Bitcoin’s spot price is below this level, the STH cost basis could further MOVE lower. The upcoming retest of this indicator in the coming months is closely followed, with previous retests having played pivotal roles in trend continuations or reversals in the past.

Market Structure Under Scrutiny

This drop in STH cost basis occurs at a time when Bitcoin’s overall market dynamics are also undergoing signs of transition. Even though the situation with long-term bitcoin holders remains well in profit and stable, it seems that there are more grassroots-level traders who remain sensitive to overall price movements.

Historically, extended periods below the STH cost basis have been associated with either deeper pullbacks or prolonged sideways movement, depending on macro and liquidity conditions.

Darkfost Flags Coinbase-Related Distortion

However, not all analysts are in agreement that this is entirely representative of organic market activity. On-chain analyst Darkfost introduced that the STH cost basis could actually be even higher when some anomalies that are exchange-related are stripped out of that figure.

His comment indicated that it might have been the case that a specific incident or data anomaly related to the FLOW into Coinbase caused the indicator to move temporarily downwards.

Actually the STH cost basis is higher when you erase the Coinbase move wich impacted the metric.

What this makes clear is an important nuance for the trader. While such information is useful, it may also be impacted by exchange-level changes which may not necessarily reflect market action by investors.