Bitcoin’s Bleak Streak: 4 Consecutive Weeks of Decline Mark Longest Downturn Since July
Bitcoin bleeds out for fourth straight week—longest losing streak in over a year.
The Unbroken Slide
BTC's persistent decline defies typical volatility patterns, rattling even seasoned traders. No quick rebounds, no dramatic recoveries—just steady erosion that's testing investor patience and technical support levels.
Market Mechanics Under Pressure
Liquidity tightens as the downtrend extends. Trading volumes thin out while leverage positions get unwound across major exchanges. The usual bullish catalysts? Nowhere in sight.
Historical Context Bites
Last time Bitcoin saw this kind of sustained pressure was July 2024. Back then, it took regulatory clarity and institutional inflows to break the pattern. This time? The usual suspects—macro pressures, regulatory uncertainty, and that classic crypto favorite: unexplained whale movements.
Where's the Bottom?
Technical analysts scramble to identify support levels while fundamentalists debate whether this is healthy correction or something more sinister. Meanwhile, traditional finance guys smugly remind everyone they've seen this movie before—and it usually ends with margin calls.
Why Discounts Form in DAT Valuations
Illiquidity acts as the first driver. Investors do not pay the full value today for Bitcoin; they will receive it after a year. Many would demand a haircut of 5 to 10%. The second force comes from expenses. Hougan used a simple illustration.
If a DAT holds Bitcoin worth 100 dollars per share but spends $10 per share annually on operating costs and executive pay, investors would naturally insist on a 10% discount. The third factor is general company risk, including management decisions, custody safety, or compliance failures.
These elements create a baseline framework showing why discounts are the default position. They exist because each cost erodes the final value that investors would ultimately receive.
When Premiums Appear and Why Size Matters
Hougan also mentioned situations wherein DATs can potentially earn a premium rate. In the United States, it would be achievable only by increasing crypto per share. There were four methods to fund such additional sources of income.
They were to borrow money to purchase crypto, lending out assets to earn interest, investing in derivatives to earn returns, and purchasing crypto via buybacks, M&A deals, and ‘locked tokens.
However, such favorable attributes are not a certainty but are pitted against the definite costs and pain of quickly liquidating other assets. Hence, Hougan forecasts that very few effectively operated DATs will cross above asset value, while the rest will remain below.
In particular, he emphasized that large companies have large advantages because they find it easier to gain access to credit, have high liquidity, and have greater opportunities to purchase discounted securities.
