VanEck Reveals Bitcoin’s October Correction Was Just a Mid-Cycle Reset
Bitcoin's recent stumble wasn't a breakdown—it was a strategic pause.
The Mid-Cycle Reality Check
VanEck's analysis shows October's 15% pullback actually strengthened Bitcoin's long-term position. Large holders accumulated during the dip while weak hands exited—classic cycle behavior that sets the stage for the next leg up.
Institutional Accumulation Continues
Despite the price action, ETF inflows hit $2.3 billion in October alone. Traditional finance keeps betting on digital gold while complaining about volatility—the ultimate Wall Street contradiction.
Reset Complete, Rally Loading
The mid-cycle reset cleared overleveraged positions and reset derivatives markets. With cleaner technicals and stronger fundamentals, Bitcoin's poised to resume its climb toward new highs. Sometimes taking two steps back is the smartest way to prepare for three steps forward.
- Bitcoin is trading at $108,699 with a traded value of $106.24 billion and 59.20% dominance, the alert being cautiously optimistic.
- Futures open interest reached a high of $52 billion before declining to $39 billion following a sudden 20% drop.
- VanEck calls October’s decline a “mid-cycle reset,” citing normalized leverage and strong on-chain activity.
Bitcoin (BTC) has regained market attention after slipping below the crucial $108,000 support zone during a volatile trading week. After a minor bounce back over $114,000, selling pressure reemerged amid uncertain macroeconomic signals and cautious investor sentiment. Analysts predict that BTC’s range-bound MOVE could determine if the next push goes to $120,000 or falls below $105,000.
Currently, BTC is trading at $108,699, a 0.65% increase over the day, with 24-hour trading at a level of $106.24 billion, a market capitalization of $2.17 trillion, and a 59.20% dominance. Whale accumulation and surging trading volumes indicate renewed investor confidence as market participants anticipate BTC’s next decisive breakout.
VanEck Sees Bitcoin Correction as Stabilizing Move
VanEck’s latest perspective on Bitcoin’s recent fall, terming October’s decline as a “mid-cycle reset” instead of a start for a bear market. The investment firm suggests the correction has stabilized excessive leverage across the market.
VanEck focuses on that on-chain activity remains strong with liquidity injections still underpinning Bitcoin’s current cycle. Normalizing the level of leverage, together with renewed interest in a network, indicates sustained interest. Analysts believe this setup may fuel BTC’s next upward push in the months ahead, reinforcing Optimism around long-term growth potential and steady adoption.
Artemis data show that roughly 73% of the Bitcoin price variation since 2020 corresponds to changes in open interest in futures. Such correlation highlights how speculative positioning shapes spot price movements through reflexive cycles of leverage and market sentiment.
Futures Open Interest Surged Before October Crash
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin open interest in futures increased 2.5 times year-over-year, reaching an apex of $52 billion before falling to $39 billion following an 8-hour, 20% price correction. For now, the futures leverage ratio remains at approximately the 61st percentile of its 5-year history, indicating a smoother and more sustainable leverage space.
Institutional participation keeps increasing, shifting leverage flows towards managed centers such as CME. Here, long-dated contracts dominate, reflecting a mature, hedging-driven approach. This institutional presence highlights BTC’s growing legitimacy, even as leverage remains a double-edged sword for traders.
With bitcoin now at its lowest relative valuation to Gold since October 2024, analysts perceive this phase in the market as a zone for accumulation. VanEck concludes that this mid-period correction may ultimately propel BTC to renewed potency as well as a sustainable increase during subsequent quarters.
