Bitcoin On-Chain Data and Technical Indicators Signal Imminent Market Reset

Blood in the streets? Not quite—but blockchain metrics and chart patterns suggest Bitcoin’s primed for a shake-up.

On-chain analysts spot exhaustion: Exchange reserves drying up, whale wallets accumulating, and miner capitulation hitting levels last seen before major reversals. Meanwhile, technicals flash oversold signals across multiple timeframes.

Will this be the flushout before the next leg up? Traders split bets—though the ’smart money’ wallets keep stacking sats while Wall Street fund managers recycle 2018 bear-market talking points. Classic.

However, with the current breakout, the market appears to be exiting this zone of financial stress. This development suggests a potential reduction in realized losses, especially as price continues to consolidate within this critical band. Momentum Indicators Show Recovery Meanwhile, Glassnode provided further insight by segmenting Short-Term Holders into sub-groups based on holding duration. This cost-basis ribbon model reveals that investors holding Bitcoin for over one month have now moved into a profitable position.

As a result, the market has seen a marked decline in financial pressure among this group. Per Glassnode, if sustained, this momentum could continue to reduce volatility stemming from investor capitulation. In parallel, the MVRV Ratio, which tracks unrealized profit or loss, has reverted to its long-term mean of 1.74. A similar pattern was observed during the previous consolidation phase in mid-2024. Notably, this reversion often serves as a base level for investor confidence. 

Other metrics such as the circulating supply, spending domains, and the SOPR metric also point to a turning point for the largest cryptocurrency. Market Reset, Not Peak Euphoria Elsewhere, data from CryptoQuant supports the profitability thesis. As of April 29, 91% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply was in profit, an increase from levels observed during the April correction. CryptoQuant’s verified analyst Darkfost identified this rise as a sign of market strength. During earlier drawdowns, profit levels dropped NEAR 75%, a threshold that often triggers broader sell-offs. Despite the current profitability level exceeding 90%, which Darkfost links to the euphoria stage of a typical market cycle, no immediate pressure to sell has emerged.