Coinbase Stock Tanks 15% as Q2 Revenue Falls Short of $1.5B Expectations

Another quarter, another crypto earnings bloodbath.

Coinbase shares cratered 15% in after-hours trading as the exchange posted Q2 revenue below Wall Street's rosy $1.5 billion forecast. The drop erased nearly a month of gains—proof that even blue-chip crypto plays aren't immune to 'sell the news' syndrome.

Revenue Reality Check

While the exact miss wasn't disclosed, the market's reaction says it all: traders dumped COIN stock faster than a depegged stablecoin. The earnings stumble comes despite Bitcoin hovering near all-time highs earlier this quarter—apparently not enough to line Coinbase's pockets to analysts' satisfaction.

Wall Street's Crypto Conundrum

Traditional finance still can't decide whether to love or hate crypto cash cows. One minute they're bidding up crypto stocks like lottery tickets, the next they're panic-selling over single-digit percentage misses. Maybe they'll figure it out by the next halving cycle.

For now, Coinbase joins the growing club of tech firms learning that in today's market, meeting expectations isn't enough—you've got to blow them out of the water. Especially when your business depends on the most volatile asset class known to man.

Coinbase share price plunged after reporting second-quarter results that fell short of estimates. The exchange said Q2 in its latest newsletter that revenue was about $1.5 billion, up 3% year‑over‑year but well below Wall Street’s $1.6 billion consensus.

Transaction revenue was $764.3 million, and subscription services brought in $655.8 million. Adjusted profit collapsed – only $33.2 million (12¢ per share) versus $294.4 million ($1.10) a year earlier.

Coinbase stock fell sharply in reaction – down about 8% in after‑hours trading on July 31 and nearly 15% by the Friday close.

The slide erased over $14 billion of market value, as analysts noted the company’s valuation had outpaced fundamentals.

Coinbase Stock Slumps After Q2 Revenue Miss

Coinbase earned $1.5 billion in Q2 2025 revenue, missing the $1.59 billion Wall Street forecast. That was up about 3.4% from Q2 2024, but down 26% from Q1 2025.

Trading volume was sluggish: spot retail volume held steady but overall transaction revenue fell 2% year‑on‑year to $764.3 million.

By contrast, subscription and services revenue ROSE 9.5% to $655.8 million, aided by stablecoin business. Stablecoin-related revenue alone hit $332.5 million, up sharply from the prior year.

On a GAAP basis, Coinbase reported $1.43 billion net income, largely from $1.5 billion in investment gains, but non‑GAAP EPS was just $0.12. The earnings per share fell far short of estimates (around $1.49 per share), underscoring the revenue miss.

Investors punished the stock. Coinbase stock fell 6.8% in extended trading on July 31, then slid further on Friday. By end of day Aug 1 they were down about 15% from Thursday’s close, NEAR a one‑month low.

The stock traded around $322, wiping out ~$14.3 billion of market capitalization if the drop holds. The sharp sell‑off followed comments from analysts and investors that Coinbase’s valuation was too high given its slowing Core business.

Morningstar noted the stock looked “significantly overvalued” relative to growth prospects. Overall, the slide cuts Coinbase’s gain for 2025 to roughly 40% (after peaking near 50%), undercutting some of its year‑to‑date outperformance.

Competion and Industry Context

The Coinbase shock came amid broader crypto market developments. Rival exchanges are moving toward public markets: Kraken is preparing a new funding round and an IPO.

Reports say Kraken plans to raise $500 million at a $15 billion valuation ahead of a likely 2026 IPO. The timing aligns with a spurt of crypto listings (Circle, eToro, etc.) after U.S. regulators gave clearer rules.

Meanwhile, other fintech firms saw diverging trends in crypto revenue. Robinhood, for example, saw its crypto trading revenue plunge in Q2.

Robinhood’s crypto revenue was about $160 million in Q2, down from $252 million in Q1. That drop reflected slowing trading activity even as overall Robinhood revenue ticked up on options and interest income.

By contrast, Robinhood itself noted crypto revenue was still up year‑over‑year due to market recovery.

These comparisons suggest Coinbase’s miss is not isolated but part of a broader lull in crypto trading volumes.

Regulatory signals have generally been positive for exchanges, but near‑term growth is muted.

Coinbase executives highlighted new U.S. laws, the GENIUS and Clarity Acts, that benefit stablecoins and digital assets, and previewed a forthcoming “everything exchange” offering tokenized stocks and derivatives.

However, tighter regulation and high interest rates have kept retail traders cautious. For now, the confirmed Q2 figures have investors focused on Coinbase’s flat trading revenue and rising costs, not its $9.3 billion cash war chest or future tokenization plans.

Coinbase’s management reiterated guidance that transaction revenue WOULD remain subdued in Q3 while subscription revenue grows.

They projected July trading revenue of $360 million and Q3 subscription/services of $665–$745 million. In contrast, regulators and markets have largely cheered crypto exchanges moving public.

The financing rush at Kraken, stablecoin legislation, and broad S&P inclusion have boosted sentiment.

But with Q2’s revenue miss and the steep drop in Coinbase share price, the near‑term outlook will hinge on trading volumes and cost control.