Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle at a Critical Juncture: Top Analyst Warns Next 100 Days Will Decide Fate

Bitcoin's halving rhythm faces its ultimate stress test—and the clock is ticking.

The crypto king's notorious 4-year cycle just hit its make-or-break window, with one chart wizard predicting fireworks within 100 days. Either we're witnessing the setup for a historic breakout...or the mother of all bull traps.

Market mechanics look textbook so far—if you ignore the hedge funds piling in with leveraged ETFs while still badmouthing crypto at cocktail parties. Miners are hoarding, whales are accumulating, and retail's starting to FOMO. All the ingredients are there.

But here's the kicker: this cycle's playing out against the tightest macro backdrop in crypto history. Rate cuts? Maybe. Recession? Possibly. Another black swan? Almost certainly. The next three months will separate diamond hands from paper-handed tourists.

One thing's guaranteed—Wall Street will take credit either way.

The Narrative: Is Bitcoin’s Cycle Theory Dead?

Since Bitcoin’s inception, analysts have observed a recurring four-year pattern tied closely to halving events. Each halving historically reduced Bitcoin’s block rewards, cutting supply growth and fueling bullish momentum that peaked about a year and a half later.

But the start of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 fundamentally changed the market landscape. These financial products introduced a wave of institutional investors, reshaping trading dynamics, liquidity, and demand. Some believe this structural shift has made the cycle theory obsolete, giving rise to the narrative that “Bitcoin’s cycle is dead.”

Analyst Revives the Four-Year Cycle Debate

In an August 16 post on X, a market analyst under the pseudonym Frank Fetter revived the debate, posing a critical question: what if the cycle is still alive?

Fetter shared an analysis using the bitcoin Index Performance Since Cycle Low, a chart comparing BTC’s growth in previous cycles (2015–2018, 2018–2022) with the ongoing 2022–2026 cycle.

• 2015–2018 cycle: BTC surged 110x from the bottom, peaking 1,068 days after the cycle low.

• 2018–2022 cycle: BTC grew 21x and peaked 1,060 days after the cycle low.

• 2022–2026 cycle (current): BTC is up 7.3x from the 2022 bottom, with 997 days passed since the low.

If history repeats, this cycle could reach its peak within the next 100 days — putting BTC on track for another surge before topping out.

Why This Cycle Looks Different

While historical comparisons provide a roadmap, the current cycle is fundamentally different:

This structural evolution means the four-year cycle may no longer fully dictate price behavior, even if its timing patterns still appear relevant.

What Happens if the Cycle Holds?

If the cycle theory plays out, Bitcoin could see its cycle top within the next 100 days. That implies one final bullish push before a potential correction.

Historically, Bitcoin tops have been followed by sharp declines, kicking off prolonged bear markets. If BTC peaks soon, a significant correction could follow in 2026, consistent with prior cycles.

However, given institutional demand and shrinking exchange reserves, some analysts argue any post-peak downturn could be shallower and shorter than in past cycles.

What If the Cycle Breaks?

On the other hand, if Bitcoin continues rallying past the 100-day window, it WOULD be strong evidence that the traditional four-year cycle no longer applies.

In this case, Bitcoin could enter a new market structure, characterized by:

• Extended bull runs supported by steady institutional inflows.

• Shorter or milder bear markets, as ETFs and long-term holders dampen volatility.

• Less dependence on halving events as supply shocks matter less compared to institutional demand.

This would mark a new era for Bitcoin — one driven less by predictable cycles and more by macroeconomic forces, global adoption, and ETF-driven liquidity.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Short-term traders may see opportunity in the possibility of one final leg up if the cycle holds true.

• Long-term investors should prepare for both outcomes: either a cycle-driven peak and correction, or a new paradigm of extended growth.

• Institutional influence will play a decisive role, as ETFs have already reshaped Bitcoin’s liquidity profile.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin stands at a fascinating crossroads. If the four-year cycle is still alive, the next 100 days could bring a climactic peak before the market cools. If not, Bitcoin may be entering a new era of less predictable, more institutionally driven price action.

Either way, investors should brace for an eventful 100 days ahead — one that could define not just this cycle, but Bitcoin’s future as a global asset.