Bitcoin Holds Firm as Profit-Taking Eases—But Don’t Pop the Champagne Yet

Bitcoin’s volatility takes a breather—traders ease off the sell button, but storm clouds linger.

The Calm After the Storm?

After weeks of wild swings, BTC finally stabilizes. Profit-taking slows as hodlers dig in, but macro risks—regulation, liquidity crunches—keep the bulls on edge.

Institutional Whispers

Wall Street’s algo-traders are circling, sniffing for entry points. Meanwhile, retail FOMO? Still MIA—proof the ‘dumb money’ might be learning (or just broke).

The Elephant in the Room

Yes, the Fed’s balance sheet still looks like a drunk billionaire’s shopping spree. No, that doesn’t guarantee crypto moonshots.

Bottom line: Bitcoin’s not out of the woods. But when has it ever been? *Cue cynical laugh from your local hedge fund manager.*

Profit-Taking Drops by 50% in 6 Months

According to data from on-chain analytics platform Glassnode, the daily volume of profit-taking in Bitcoin has fallen significantly. Back in December 2024, short-term holders were cashing out nearly $2 billion per day in profits. Now, that figure has dropped to $1 billion, showing a 50% decline in realized profits over the last six months.

This means that fewer investors are selling at a profit right now, which is typically a sign that the market is trying to find a more balanced or stable footing.

Short-Term Holders Less Eager to Sell

The percentage of short-term holders (investors who bought bitcoin within the last 155 days) taking profits has also declined. That number has fallen to 45%, which is below the neutral threshold of 50%. When fewer short-term holders are selling, it often reduces volatility in the market.

Glassnode suggests that this shift puts Bitcoin in a “relatively balanced position,” where buying and selling are more even. That’s a good sign for price stability in the NEAR term.

Key Resistance Ahead at $116,000

Bitcoin recently surged to an all-time high of $123,000 in July 2025. Since then, the price has pulled back, and it’s currently trading just above $112,000.

Analysts believe a key level to watch is $116,000. This is the average cost basis of investors who bought Bitcoin in the past month. If BTC can break above this level, it could signal that buyers are regaining control, which may lead to another price surge.

But for now, Bitcoin is trading within a tricky range. Glassnode notes there’s an “air gap” of low liquidity between $110,000 and $117,000. This means there aren’t many buy or sell orders in that range, making the price more volatile in either direction.

Risk of Further Correction Still Present

Despite these signs of stabilization, the market isn’t out of the woods yet. Daniel Liu, CEO of crypto firm Republic Technologies, says the recent pullback is still within healthy correction levels. A drop to $105,000–$107,000 would be “normal and not alarming,” according to Liu.

The supply of short-term holders “in profit” has dropped from 100% to 70% recently. If demand doesn’t bounce back quickly, investor confidence could weaken, possibly triggering another round of selling.

Macroeconomic Risks Still Loom

Bitcoin isn’t just dealing with crypto-specific trends—it’s also tied to broader economic conditions. The U.S. equity market is currently overextended, with some trading models holding 110% long positions, according to Nomura.

In other words, the stock market is stretched, and if it corrects, it could drag Bitcoin and other risk assets down with it.

Additionally, the U.S. Federal Reserve is facing pressure to adjust its monetary policy. Weak jobs data for May and June has led some investors to bet on a potential rate cut, which could support asset prices. But if the Fed delays or reverses its stance, that could trigger renewed volatility.

Market Sentiment Is Cautious

Another sign of caution is Bitcoin’s 30-day skew, which has moved into negative territory. This means that investors are buying more put options (bets that the price will go down) than call options (bets that the price will rise). It shows that investors are now more concerned about downside risks.

Still, long-term outlooks remain positive. Bitcoin has delivered year-to-date returns nearly three times higher than the S&P 500, according to Liu.

Final Thoughts

In summary, Bitcoin appears to be entering a consolidation phase after a record-setting rally. While profit-taking is slowing and fewer short-term holders are selling, macro risks remain high. The next few weeks could be critical in determining whether Bitcoin rebounds past key resistance or falls to lower support zones.

Investors should keep a close eye on:

• The $116,000 resistance level

• Short-term holder behavior

• U.S. economic updates, especially from the Fed

• Broader market sentiment, including options trends