Bitcoin’s Billion-Dollar Pivot: How Vanishing Millions Are Rewriting Crypto Strategy

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Ancient Supply Now Growing Faster Than New Coins

Fidelity Digital Assets recently released a report revealing a key supply-side transformation. For the first time in Bitcoin’s history, the number of coins entering the “ancient supply” category—defined as coins that haven’t moved in over 10 years—is growing faster than new Bitcoin being mined.

As of June 8, 2025, approximately 566 BTC are entering this long-dormant status each day, exceeding the current issuance of 450 BTC per day. This shift highlights a growing concentration of Bitcoin that is likely to remain untouched for years, or perhaps forever.

Currently, over 17% of all mined Bitcoin falls into the ancient supply category. If this trend continues, some forecasts suggest that by 2026, up to 30% of the total Bitcoin supply—around 6.3 million BTC—may become inaccessible due to loss, forgotten wallets, or holders with no intention of moving their assets.

What This Means for Bitcoin’s Price

While scarcity alone doesn’t guarantee price appreciation, Bitcoin’s fixed supply combined with rising dormant coins could become a major driver of long-term valuation. The logic is simple: with fewer coins available for trading or spending, even a modest increase in demand could have an outsized effect on price.

For Bitcoin to reach the highly speculated $1 million per coin target, its total market capitalization WOULD need to grow to $21 trillion—ten times its current $2.1 trillion value. Though ambitious, some analysts argue this isn’t out of reach given the dwindling active supply and Bitcoin’s deflationary design.

However, achieving this would require more than just scarcity. Institutional adoption, macroeconomic uncertainty, and evolving regulatory frameworks will also play significant roles.

Post-Election Volatility Still Looms

Despite the optimistic outlook on Bitcoin’s scarcity, short-term volatility remains a concern. The period following the 2024 U.S. elections has introduced turbulence across financial markets, and crypto is no exception.

The Fidelity report noted that since the election, ancient supply has seen daily declines nearly 10% of the time—about four times more than the long-term historical average. Similarly, wallets holding coins for five years or more have shown day-to-day reductions 39% of the time, three times the usual rate.

This increased movement from long-term holders suggests that even the most patient investors can be prompted to act in response to global events, whether geopolitical conflict or sudden economic policy changes.

Investor Sentiment Remains Strong

Still, most Bitcoin holders appear confident. Data from IntoTheBlock shows that nearly 89% of BTC addresses are currently in profit, indicating broad optimism. Only about 3.77% of wallets are currently underwater. This suggests that many investors are comfortable holding their positions despite market fluctuations.

The growing share of dormant and potentially lost Bitcoin combined with the high percentage of profitable addresses paints a picture of a maturing market where participants are more focused on long-term value than quick gains.

Bitcoin’s Unique Supply Curve

Bitcoin’s supply curve is unlike anything seen in traditional financial systems. Unlike fiat currencies, which can be printed at will, Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million coins. With more coins being taken out of circulation indefinitely—either through lost private keys, untouched early wallets, or long-term cold storage—this limit becomes increasingly meaningful.

This structural disinflation is one of Bitcoin’s most defining characteristics. It is what makes it appealing as a hedge against inflation and fiat currency debasement. And if the trend of rising ancient supply continues, the remaining liquid supply could become even more scarce.

Looking Ahead

The idea that nearly one-third of all Bitcoin could be inaccessible within a decade is both startling and transformative. For investors, this changes how supply-demand dynamics may play out in the future. For developers and researchers, it’s a reminder of the need for secure wallet practices and perhaps, more robust recovery solutions.

Regardless of short-term price fluctuations, the long-term trajectory for Bitcoin appears increasingly driven by scarcity, sentiment, and utility as a decentralized store of value. As coins continue to vanish into digital vaults and forgotten keys, what’s left in circulation may become exponentially more valuable—not just in dollar terms, but in the broader financial system.

The clock is ticking, and Bitcoin’s disappearing supply may turn out to be one of its strongest value drivers in the years ahead.