Bitcoin’s Halving Rally Charges Toward $466K Target - Here’s Why Traders Are FOMOing

Bitcoin's post-halving surge is defying gravity—and Wall Street's skepticism—as analysts pin a $466K price target on the king of crypto.

The supply shock is real

With the latest halving slashing miner rewards by 50%, Bitcoin's programmed scarcity is kicking into overdrive. Institutional inflows through spot ETFs are compounding the pressure—because nothing makes hedge funds chase performance like missing out on triple-digit gains.

Technical breakout underway

The weekly chart shows BTC has shattered its previous all-time high with conviction. Retail traders who waited for a 'pullback' now face the oldest lesson in markets: don't fight momentum when the Fed's money printer starts humming again.

Just remember: when your Uber driver starts giving you BTC price targets, maybe take some profits. The suits on Wall Street haven't forgiven crypto for 2021—they're just trying to front-run the next bubble.

Yearly Trend Signals Upside Potential

According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Yearly Percentage Trend analysis highlights that 2025 could be a decisive bullish year for the leading cryptocurrency. The chart, which tracks data going back to 2011, shows a repeating 3-year cycle: a strong rally, followed by correction, then recovery. These cycles align closely with Bitcoin’s 4-year halving events.

Currently, Bitcoin is in the third year of the cycle—a phase that has historically delivered significant returns. If the pattern holds, a 120% gain from current levels could push Bitcoin’s price to around $205,000 by year-end.

This kind of technical behavior isn’t new to Bitcoin. It reflects the asset’s tendency to surge following a halving, driven by the combination of reduced supply and increased investor interest.

The Halving Effect Could Push Bitcoin Toward $466K

While CryptoQuant’s forecast is bullish, other analysts see even more upside potential. A more aggressive model projects bitcoin could climb as high as $466,257 during the current cycle, based on gains observed after the previous halving.

Following the 2020 halving, Bitcoin saw a total return of approximately 750%, ultimately hitting an all-time high of $69,000. If that growth repeats post-2024 halving, it places the next target above $460K.

This outlook is backed by a 9-timeframe chart using the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which shows that Bitcoin’s real bull phase in 2020 began only after the RSI moved into the overbought zone—above 70. That signal is considered a trigger for large upward moves, even though it often precedes short-term corrections.

As of now, the RSI is still below 70, suggesting that the next major move may not yet be underway—but could begin once the indicator pushes higher.

ETFs Strengthen Long-Term Momentum

Another major factor supporting Bitcoin’s price potential is the rise in capital flowing into Bitcoin spot ETFs. Since the beginning of 2025, institutional interest has grown rapidly, with assets under management across all Bitcoin ETFs now exceeding $131 billion.

This influx of traditional capital shows that Bitcoin is gaining traction among mainstream investors, institutions, and asset managers. As ETFs continue to accumulate more Bitcoin, the available supply on the open market shrinks—fueling long-term demand and potentially contributing to upward price pressure.

It’s a trend that reflects growing confidence in Bitcoin’s role as both a store of value and a legitimate portfolio asset.

Still Room to Run in This Cycle

Despite the strong fundamentals and bullish forecasts, Bitcoin hasn’t yet entered an overheated zone. The RSI remains neutral, and price volatility is relatively subdued compared to past explosive rallies.

This indicates that while the market is optimistic, it isn’t in a state of mania—yet. That’s significant, because historical Bitcoin cycles tend to show the most dramatic gains only once enthusiasm and FOMO (fear of missing out) begin to take hold at scale.

As macroeconomic uncertainty lingers and central banks reevaluate their interest rate policies, Bitcoin’s appeal as a non-sovereign, inflation-resistant asset remains intact. If liquidity conditions ease later in the year, Bitcoin could benefit further from a renewed wave of capital seeking alternative assets.

The Road to $466K: What Needs to Happen?

For Bitcoin to reach the $466,000 target, several developments must align:

• RSI Breakout: A confirmed move above the 70 RSI level, signaling a surge in buying strength.

• Continued ETF Inflows: Persistent accumulation by spot ETFs, especially from institutional investors.

• Macro Tailwinds: A shift in global liquidity, potentially via interest rate cuts or inflationary pressure.

• Post-Halving Supply Crunch: A delayed effect from the reduced block rewards introduced during the 2024 halving.

Each of these factors has historically played a role in fueling major Bitcoin rallies. Combined, they could set the stage for one of the asset’s most significant bull runs yet.

Conclusion

While Bitcoin’s current price sits above $100K, the asset’s long-term trajectory could still be in its early stages. Technical patterns, macro indicators, and ETF adoption all point toward a bullish outlook. And if historical cycles repeat, the next milestone for Bitcoin may not be $120K or $150K—but well beyond $400K.

Investors should remain cautious but attentive. With the next halving already behind us, the conditions are forming for a potentially historic move in the years ahead.