Bitcoin’s Redemption Arc: Will May 2025 Mark the Return to Glory?

As Bitcoin bulls charge into 2025, all eyes are on the $69K psychological barrier—the cryptocurrency’s notorious all-time high from 2021. With halving cycles historically triggering parabolic rallies, traders are placing their bets: will this be the month BTC finally recaptures its throne?

Market cycles suggest yes. The 2024 halving’s supply shock is now fully priced in, while institutional adoption via spot ETFs has created a demand tsunami. Glassnode’s illiquid supply metric shows coins disappearing from exchanges faster than free champagne at a Wall Street closing bell.

But skeptics point to macro headwinds. The Fed’s rate-cut hesitation and potential regulatory crackdowns could throw cold water on the rally. Still, crypto OGs remember: Bitcoin has survived 80% drawdowns before—only to emerge stronger.

Whether you’re a diamond-handed hodler or a profit-taking mercenary, May 2025 promises fireworks. Just remember: in crypto, the only certainty is volatility.

Why Is Bitcoin Holding Strong Near $94,000?

Bitcoin’s strength in holding close to $94,000 indicates a strong relief rally driven by macroeconomic news. Hints from the Trump administration to relax import tariffs were a good backdrop, soothing worries over trade tensions. Furthermore, solid corporate earnings reports reinforced market optimism, contributing indirectly to the upward momentum. This combination of factors enabled Bitcoin to show strength despite the ongoing volatility. The capacity to maintain above $90,000 for a while has consolidated investor belief, making it a serious competitor in the financial world.

How Are Bitcoin ETFs Influencing Market Sentiment?

One of the major catalysts of Bitcoin’s recent action has been the record inflow into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In five days, these ETFs saw a record $3.1 billion in net inflows, which highlights increasing institutional demand. The influx of investment has boosted its popularity, as ETFs offer a regulated and accessible way for retail and institutional investors to participate. But even with this positive signal, one of the leading derivatives indicators—the Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate—has displayed bearish momentum, calling into question the durability of the rally and whether it has any real chance of breaking through the $100,000 barrier.

Bitcoin perpetual futures, popular among retail traders due to their close tracking of spot market prices, provide valuable insights into market sentiment. The annualized funding rate for these contracts went sharply negative on April 26, a rare event in bull markets. A negative funding rate means that sellers are paying to hold their positions, a sign of more aggressive bearish demand. This Bitcoin funding rate volatility, which has been witnessed since April 14, surprised short sellers as the price zoomed past $94,000, resulting in over $450 million worth of short liquidations since April 21. This action reflects the struggle between bulls and bears in the Bitcoin market.

Image: BTC perpetual futures annualized funding rate.

In the past, the price action of Bitcoin has been somewhat correlated with traditional markets, most notably the S&P 500. Yet more recent evidence suggests a divergence, with the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 falling to 29% in late April, down from 60% between March and mid-April. While the S&P 500 was up 7.1% on the week, powered by ahead-of-trade-war earnings announcements, BTC’s surge was powered by different factors, including ETF inflows and macroeconomic bullishness. This decoupling indicates that BTC is becoming more of its own independent asset, less correlated with technology stocks, and more influenced by its unique market forces.

Image: 30-day correlation: S&P 500 vs BTC/USD.

The interplay between retail hesitancy and institutional accumulation presents a balanced picture for the price action of Bitcoin. Bearish leverage in perpetual futures captures retail traders’ skepticism, but the increasing futures premium and ETF inflows indicate strong institutional demand. If this institutional demand keeps going, it may be enough to propel BTC above the $100k mark again. However, external factors, such as ongoing trade negotiations and macroeconomic uncertainties, could temper this optimism, making its path to six figures a challenging but achievable goal.

Bitcoin’s action in April 2025 marks its ability to recapture and surpass the $100,000 mark. The 11% jump, driven by all-time high ETF inflows of $3.1 billion and an uptick in the futures premium, marks strong institutional support that has the potential to drive the coin forward. Even with bearish indications through perpetual futures, the increasing conviction in Bitcoin as a unique asset class, decoupled from the S&P 500 and outperforming gold, sets the stage for a breakout.

Disclaimer: Crypto products and NFTs are unregulated and can be highly risky. There may be no regulatory recourse for any loss from such transactions. All content provided is for informational purposes only, and shall not be relied upon as financial/investment advice. Opinions shared,  if any, are only shared for information and education purposes. Although the best efforts have been made to ensure all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors or misprints may occur. We recommend you do your own research or consult an expert before making any investment decision. You may write to us at [email protected].