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GE Vernova Stock Soars 300% Since April 2024, Now Second-Best in S&P 500 – Here’s Why

GE Vernova Stock Soars 300% Since April 2024, Now Second-Best in S&P 500 – Here’s Why

Published:
2025-09-22 00:40:03
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GE Vernova has become Wall Street's darling, with its stock skyrocketing over 300% since its April 2024 spin-off from General Electric. Now the second-best performer in the S&P 500 (just behind Palantir), the energy company is riding an AI-driven power demand wave that shows no signs of slowing. With cash reserves doubling to $8 billion and revenue projected to hit $45 billion by 2028, GE Vernova's gas turbine and grid businesses are completely sold out through the decade. Meanwhile, its nuclear division is gaining traction while wind energy struggles under regulatory pressures. Analysts maintain bullish price targets averaging $686.68, suggesting there's still room to run.

Why Has GE Vernova Stock Become a Market Darling?

Since its NYSE debut on April 2, 2024, GE Vernova's shares have delivered staggering returns that WOULD make any growth investor envious. The stock's 300% surge isn't just speculative hype – it's backed by concrete fundamentals in an era where AI data centers are rewriting global energy demand forecasts. CEO Scott Strazik's March 2024 prediction about being "purpose built" for this moment now looks prophetic rather than promotional. The BTCC research team notes that what initially seemed like marketing fluff has transformed into one of the most compelling investment theses in the energy sector.

Gas Turbine Business: Sold Out Through 2028

GE Vernova's gas power division has become the company's cash cow, with order books bursting at the seams. The 55-gigawatt backlog reported in June would keep factories humming for years, while Q2 2025 orders tripled year-over-year. Pricing power has become extraordinary – NextEra's CEO revealed construction costs have nearly tripled from $785/kW in 2022 to $2,400/kW today. What's particularly impressive is the service revenue stream: with 7,000+ installed turbines worldwide, maintenance contracts now represent 70% of gas power revenue. CFO Kenneth Parks disclosed the gas service backlog reached $56 billion by 2024's close, creating what Melius Research's Rob Wertheimer calls "hard to internalize" pricing power.

Grid Gear Flying Off Shelves

The company's grid solutions business is experiencing similar explosive demand. Transformers and switchgears are completely sold out through 2028, with the backlog hitting $24 billion in Q2 2025 – a 40% year-over-year jump. Data centers alone accounted for $500 million in electric gear orders during H1 2025, nearly matching 2024's full-year total. Strazik told Morgan Stanley they expect to book $1 billion in direct data center orders before year-end. These numbers reveal how AI's infrastructure needs are creating Ripple effects across multiple industrial sectors simultaneously.

Nuclear's Quiet Ascent

While gas and grid dominate current revenues, GE Vernova is making strategic nuclear bets for the 2030s. The company plans to add 5GW of U.S. nuclear capacity by restarting shuttered sites and upgrading 65 existing GE-technology reactors. Their small modular reactor (SMR) program is gaining traction too, with one under construction in Ontario and another planned for Tennessee. If successful, SMRs could generate over $2 billion annually by the mid-2030s. This nuclear push comes as many countries reconsider atomic energy's role in achieving both decarbonization and energy security goals.

Wind Energy's Perfect Storm

The wind division remains GE Vernova's Achilles' heel, losing $588 million in 2024 (albeit an improvement from 2023's $1 billion hemorrhage). The perfect storm of high interest rates, turbine blade failures ($700 million cost), and political uncertainty under the new administration has crippled growth. Two flagship offshore projects – Vineyard Wind and Dogger Bank – face major delays, while the Interior Department halted Revolution Wind's construction. Strazik warned onshore wind revenue could drop 15% in 2026, bluntly stating they won't take new offshore projects without "substantially different economics." The message is clear: wind is on life support while other divisions thrive.

Analysts Remain Bullish Despite Run-Up

Even after this year's 90% gain, Wall Street sees more upside. The average price target of $686.68 implies 10% additional upside from current levels, with Melius Research's $740 target suggesting even greater potential. What makes GE Vernova unique is its positioning at the intersection of two megatrends: AI-driven power demand and global grid modernization. While the stock isn't cheap by traditional metrics, its growth runway appears exceptionally long given the structural changes occurring in energy markets worldwide.

Financial Firepower for Future Growth

GE Vernova's balance sheet tells its own success story. The company doubled its cash pile to $8 billion by 2024's end, with plans to reach $14 billion by 2028. This war chest provides flexibility to invest in high-growth areas while potentially returning capital to shareholders. The 2028 revenue target of $45 billion (up from $35 billion in 2024) suggests management expects the current momentum to continue, if not accelerate. For investors, the key question isn't whether demand exists – the order books prove it does – but whether execution can match these ambitious targets.

The AI Energy Play You Can't Ignore

GE Vernova has transformed from a corporate spin-off to a market darling by solving AI's dirty secret: its insatiable appetite for power. While tech companies dominate AI headlines, it's infrastructure players like GE Vernova that enable the revolution. The stock's meteoric rise reflects this reality, but with order books stretching years into the future and multiple growth engines firing, this might be just the beginning. As one hedge fund manager recently quipped, "In the Gold rush, sell shovels – and GE Vernova sells the entire mining operation."

FAQs About GE Vernova's Meteoric Rise

How much has GE Vernova stock gained since its spin-off?

The stock has skyrocketed over 300% since its April 2, 2024 NYSE debut, making it the second-best performer in the S&P 500 after Palantir.

What's driving GE Vernova's explosive growth?

Three main factors: 1) Surging demand for gas turbines (sold out through 2028), 2) Grid equipment shortages (transformers sold out through 2028), and 3) AI data centers' massive power requirements.

Is GE Vernova profitable?

While specific profit figures aren't disclosed, the company has dramatically improved its wind division losses (from $1B to $588M) while gas, grid, and nuclear businesses are thriving with record backlogs.

What are analysts' price targets for GE Vernova?

The average price target stands at $686.68 (about 10% upside), with Melius Research's Rob Wertheimer setting a $740 target citing "hard to internalize" pricing power.

How is GE Vernova positioned in the nuclear sector?

The company plans to add 5GW of U.S. nuclear capacity through reactor upgrades and new small modular reactors, potentially generating $2B+ annually by mid-2030s.

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