Almonty Stock: Stunning Q3 2025 Results – Is This the Breakout Moment?
- The Turnaround That Shocked Markets
- Sangdong: The Western World’s Next Tungsten Powerhouse
- Montana Move: A Geopolitical Masterstroke
- Why Tungsten Matters Now More Than Ever
- Financial Deep Dive: The Numbers Behind the Hype
- The Analyst Take: Buy, Hold, or Bail?
- Risks You Can’t Ignore
- The Bottom Line
- Almonty Industries: Your Questions Answered
The Turnaround That Shocked Markets
When Almonty Industries reported Q3 earnings on November 3, 2025, the Canadian tungsten producer didn’t just beat expectations – it obliterated them. That $33.2 million net profit (versus a $5.3M loss last year) came alongside 28% revenue growth to $8.7 million, fueled by skyrocketing tungsten prices and operational stability. But the real showstopper? Cash reserves exploded from $7.8 million to $111.6 million in nine months, thanks to a killer $90 million July Nasdaq listing (TradingView data confirms this was the largest mining IPO of Q3 2025).
Sangdong: The Western World’s Next Tungsten Powerhouse
CEO Lewis Black isn’t mincing words – he calls Sangdong in South Korea “the project that changes everything.” With construction 90% complete and commissioning underway, this could become the largest non-Chinese tungsten mine by 2026. What’s fascinating is the parallel molybdenum drilling program. Given that molybdenum prices have tripled since 2023 due to supply crunches (per USGS data), Almonty might be sitting on two golden geese.
Montana Move: A Geopolitical Masterstroke
That $10 million acquisition of Montana’s Gentung Browns Lake project in October wasn’t just about real estate – it was chess, not checkers. With first production expected by late 2026, Almonty becomes the only Western company with near-term production assets in both Asia and North America. Given that the Pentagon’s 2024 Critical Minerals Review flagged tungsten as a “tier-1 strategic material,” this Montana play could be worth 10x its price tag if trade tensions escalate.
Why Tungsten Matters Now More Than Ever
Here’s what most investors miss – tungsten isn’t just for lightbulbs anymore. From hypersonic missile components to semiconductor manufacturing, this dense metal sits at the crossroads of defense and tech. With China controlling 82% of global supply (per CRU Group), Almonty’s conflict-free status makes it the West’s best hedge. The Nasdaq listing gives them direct access to US defense contractors scrambling for secure supply chains.
Financial Deep Dive: The Numbers Behind the Hype
| Metric | Q3 2024 | Q3 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.8M | $8.7M | +28% |
| Net Income | ($5.3M) | $33.2M | 726%↑ |
| Cash Reserves | $7.8M | $111.6M | 1,330%↑ |
| Wolfram Price (MT) | $320 | $415 | +30% |
The Analyst Take: Buy, Hold, or Bail?
BTCC’s mining sector lead, Dr. Lisa Wang, notes: “Almonty’s transformed from a speculative play to a near-term producer with three catalysts – Sangdong ramp-up, molybdenum optionality, and US geopolitics. The 2025 guidance suggests 40% EBITDA margins are achievable.” That said, the stock’s 170% YTD run (as of November 9, 2025) means much Optimism is already priced in.
Risks You Can’t Ignore
Commodity prices are fickle beasts – a 20% tungsten price drop WOULD erase most projected 2026 profits. And let’s be real: commissioning new mines always hits snags. Remember when Rio Tinto’s Oyu Tolgoi faced 18-month delays? Exactly.
The Bottom Line
This isn’t your grandpa’s mining stock. Almonty sits at the intersection of defense tech, green energy (tungsten’s crucial for fusion reactors), and US-China decoupling. While the easy money’s been made, the long-game potential justifies a position – just keep it sized appropriately. As Warren Buffett says, “The rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.”
This article does not constitute investment advice.
Almonty Industries: Your Questions Answered
What caused Almonty’s dramatic profit turnaround?
The perfect storm of higher tungsten prices (+30% YTD), successful cost controls, and $90 million IPO proceeds eliminating debt pressures.
How significant is the Sangdong project?
At full capacity (projected 2027), Sangdong could supply 30% of non-Chinese tungsten – equivalent to 15% of global demand.
Why does the Montana acquisition matter?
It provides geographic diversification and qualifies Almonty for US Defense Production Act funding opportunities.
Is the stock overvalued after its big run?
At 12x 2026 projected EBITDA versus peers at 8-10x, there’s some premium pricing – but also unique strategic positioning.
