Volkswagen Stock 2025: Battle for a Trend Reversal Amid Mixed Signals

• Why Are Analysts Cutting Targets But Keeping "Buy" Ratings?
• EV Growth vs. ICE Decline: A Tale of Two Volkswagens
• That €2B China Truck Gamble: Genius or Desperation?
• Q3 Earnings: The Make-or-Break Moment
• FAQ: Your Volkswagen Stock Questions Answered

Volkswagen’s stock is caught in a tug-of-war between bullish analysts and market skepticism. While Deutsche Bank slashes its price target but maintains a "Buy" rating, VW’s solid delivery numbers and a €2 billion China bet hint at potential upside. But with challenges in key markets and an oversold RSI of 16.6, is this a buying opportunity or a value trap? We break down the conflicting signals, regional performance, and what Q3 earnings on October 29 could mean for investors.

Why Are Analysts Cutting Targets But Keeping "Buy" Ratings?

Deutsche Bank just trimmed Volkswagen’s price target by 8.3% to €110 (from €120) while oddly reaffirming its "Buy" recommendation. Their math suggests 25% upside from current levels—a classic "hold your nose and buy" scenario. RBC and Jefferies echo this cautious optimism, with the consensus target at €112.60. The downgrade reflects global auto sector headaches: China’s demand slump (-4% deliveries) and U.S. tariff tangles (-7.8%). Technically, the stock’s RSI at 16.6 screams "oversold," but as TradingView data shows, that doesn’t always mean "buy."

EV Growth vs. ICE Decline: A Tale of Two Volkswagens

VW delivered 6.6M vehicles YTD (+1.2%), but the real story is electric: BEV shipments surged 41.7% to 717,500 units. Europe led with 8% Q3 growth, while South America shocked with +14.9%. Their 27% EU EV market share proves the ID. series is working—yet China’s 4% overall decline lingers like bad exhaust fumes. The BEV mix improved from 8% to 11% globally, but as the BTCC team notes, "ICE profits still fund this transition."

That €2B China Truck Gamble: Genius or Desperation?

While passenger cars flounder, VW’s Scania brand is building a 50,000-unit/year heavy truck plant in Rugao—its largest single investment ever in China. The play? Dominate Asian commercial EV exports before rivals wake up. But with Porsche recently cutting margin targets (15-17% → 10-15%), investors wonder if this is vision or vanity. Local media call it "a hedge against consumer weakness," but €2B is a pricey hedge.

Q3 Earnings: The Make-or-Break Moment

Mark your calendars for October 29. Analysts expect €0.62 EPS, but everyone’s watching:

• China margins: How much did price wars hurt?
• Cost cuts: Progress on its €10B efficiency plan
• Liquidity: With 6% dividend yield, can payout stay safe?

At P/E 6, VW looks cheap—but as one fund manager told us, "Cheap can always get cheaper."

FAQ: Your Volkswagen Stock Questions Answered

Should I buy Volkswagen stock now?

With 25% implied upside to analyst targets and a 6% dividend, it’s tempting—but wait for Q3 results on Oct 29 to confirm turnaround progress.

Why did Deutsche Bank cut the price target but keep a "Buy"?

They see macro risks (China/US) but believe VW’s EV shift and valuation outweigh short-term pain. It’s a "long-term play" call.

Is Volkswagen’s dividend safe?

At 6% yield, markets doubt it. The payout ratio is 40%, but another China miss could force a rethink.