Exclusion of Crypto Treasuries from MSCI Indices Could Trigger Up to $15 Billion in Outflows
- What’s the Real Impact of Digital Asset Treasuries vs. MSCI?
- Which Companies Are on the Chopping Block?
- Why $15 Billion in Outflows Isn’t Just a Number
- The “Operational Business” Debate
- What’s Next for DATs?
The potential exclusion of Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) from major indices like MSCI and Nasdaq 100 is sending shockwaves through the crypto market. With 39 companies under scrutiny—18 already in the indices and 21 awaiting inclusion—analysts estimate outflows of $10–15 billion, with Strategy alone facing $2.8 billion in capital flight. This article breaks down the implications, the companies at risk, and why the debate over what defines an "operational company" is heating up.
What’s the Real Impact of Digital Asset Treasuries vs. MSCI?
Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) were supposed to be the golden child of 2025, with their numbers skyrocketing as companies piled into crypto. But now, these publicly traded firms—many of which turned to crypto to revive their struggling balance sheets—are facing steep declines. Some are even liquidating their crypto holdings to fund stock buybacks. Talk about irony.
Enter the latest twist: MSCI and Nasdaq 100 are considering booting companies that hold more than 50% of their assets in crypto. The backlash? A lobbying group called bitcoin For Corporations is fighting back, arguing that Bitcoin Treasuries are "operational businesses," not just crypto hoarders. But with preliminary estimates suggesting $11.6 billion in outflows if the exclusions go through, the stakes are sky-high.
Which Companies Are on the Chopping Block?
A preliminary list flags 39 companies, including heavyweights like Strategy, Sharplink Gaming, Riot Platforms, and Marathon Digital Holdings. Of these, 18 are current index constituents (with a combined $98 billion market cap), while the other 21 ($15 billion market cap) face permanent exclusion. JPMorgan’s analysis suggests Strategy could bleed $2.8 billion alone if cut from MSCI indices.
Why $15 Billion in Outflows Isn’t Just a Number
Let’s be clear: these estimates are speculative until MSCI confirms its decision on January 15 (effective February). But the math is sobering. The 39 DATs represent $113 billion in float-adjusted market cap. If even a fraction of index-tracking funds bail, the Ripple effect could tank crypto-linked stocks—and maybe even Bitcoin’s price. Remember: these firms collectively hold billions in BTC.
The “Operational Business” Debate
Bitcoin For Corporations isn’t going down without a fight. Their argument? A single balance-sheet metric (crypto holdings) shouldn’t dictate whether a company is "operational." Think of it like judging a restaurant solely by its salt reserves. But with the SEC tightening crypto regulations, MSCI might not care. As one BTCC analyst put it: "This is less about accounting and more about risk management."
What’s Next for DATs?
For now, the battle is U.S.-centric, but global indices could follow suit. The real question: Will crypto’s volatility scare off traditional finance for good? Or is this just a bump in Bitcoin’s road to mainstream adoption? Either way, February’s rebalancing could be a bloodbath—or a buying opportunity. (This article does not constitute investment advice.)
FAQs
Why are DATs being excluded from MSCI indices?
MSCI is scrutinizing companies with over 50% crypto holdings, deeming them non-operational. The MOVE aims to reduce volatility in indices.
Which companies are most at risk?
Strategy, Riot Platforms, and Marathon Digital top the list. See the full breakdown in our table above.
How reliable are the $15 billion outflow estimates?
They’re projections based on current AUM in index funds. Actual outflows depend on MSCI’s final decision.
