Qatar’s Energy Minister Warns of LNG Supply Crunch by 2035 Amid AI Boom and Underinvestment

• Why Is Qatar’s Energy Minister Sounding the Alarm on LNG?
• AI’s Energy Appetite: A Game-Changer for LNG Markets
• The Investment Gap: Why New LNG Projects Are Lagging
• Price Volatility Ahead? What Traders Need to Watch
• The Clean Energy Paradox: Can LNG Stay "Green"?
• FAQ: Your LNG Supply Crisis Questions, Answered

Qatar’s Energy Minister, Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, has raised alarms about a potential liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply shortage by 2035, driven by surging energy demands from AI data centers and chronic underinvestment in production capacity. The International Energy Agency (IEA) echoes these concerns, projecting a 50% rise in global LNG trade by 2030. With Qatar and the U.S. leading new export projects, the race is on to bridge the gap—but regulatory hurdles and energy transition uncertainties loom large. Here’s why the world’s energy markets are bracing for turbulence.

Why Is Qatar’s Energy Minister Sounding the Alarm on LNG?

Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, Qatar’s energy minister and CEO of QatarEnergy, didn’t mince words at the Doha Forum: the world is sleepwalking into an LNG supply crisis. By 2035, he predicts demand could skyrocket to 600–700 million tons per year (Mtpa), up from ~400 Mtpa today. The culprits? Explosive growth in AI-driven data centers (which guzzle power like nobody’s business) and a decade of sluggish investments in gas infrastructure. "If we don’t act in the next 5–6 years, we’ll face serious problems," he warned. Translation: buckle up for potential price spikes and supply scrambles.

AI’s Energy Appetite: A Game-Changer for LNG Markets

Think AI is just about chatbots and self-driving cars? Think again. Training a single AI model can consume more electricity than 100 homes use in a year. Now scale that to thousands of data centers worldwide, and you’ve got a recipe for energy chaos. Al-Kaabi flagged this as a key driver for LNG’s future demand, especially as natural gas becomes the "transition fuel" of choice for power-hungry tech hubs. The IEA’s November 2023 report backs this up, forecasting global LNG trade to hit 880 billion cubic meters (Gcm) by 2035—up from 560 Gcm in 2024—with AI and data centers leading the charge.

The Investment Gap: Why New LNG Projects Are Lagging

Here’s the kicker: while demand is set to soar, the industry’s been dragging its feet on new projects. Permitting delays, ESG pressures, and wild cards like the energy transition have spooked investors. Al-Kaabi noted that even Qatar’s massive North Field expansion—which will boost LNG output by 64 Mtpa by 2027—might not be enough. The U.S. is adding ~150 Gcm of export capacity by 2030, but as one analyst quipped, "It’s like bringing a water pistol to a wildfire."

Price Volatility Ahead? What Traders Need to Watch

Al-Kaabi’s crystal ball suggests oil prices in the $70–$80/barrel range are ideal to fund new infrastructure. But LNG markets could see fireworks. Asia (which accounts for 10–20% of Qatar’s contracts) and Europe are already jostling for supply. If the EU relaxes methane emission rules to secure gas, prices might stabilize—or trigger a green policy backlash. Either way, traders should keep an eye on:

• Qatar’s deal flow: Long-term contracts with Asian buyers are locking in future supply.
• U.S. export timelines: Delays = tighter markets.
• AI’s power demands: Google and Microsoft’s data centers aren’t slowing down.

The Clean Energy Paradox: Can LNG Stay "Green"?

LNG’s selling point? It’s cleaner than coal. But with methane leaks and carbon capture tech still in its infancy, the "transition fuel" label is under scrutiny. Al-Kaabi insists Qatar’s investing in carbon-neutral LNG, but critics argue it’s a stopgap, not a solution. As one climate advocate put it: "You can’t put out a fire with gasoline."

FAQ: Your LNG Supply Crisis Questions, Answered

What’s causing the potential LNG shortage?

Two words: AI and underinvestment. Data centers are draining power grids, while new LNG projects aren’t getting built fast enough.

How much will LNG demand grow by 2035?

Al-Kaabi projects 600–700 Mtpa, up from ~400 Mtpa today. The IEA predicts global LNG trade will hit 880 Gcm by 2035.

Which countries are leading new LNG projects?

The U.S. (50% of new capacity) and Qatar (20%) are the heavyweights, with Australia and Russia playing catch-up.

Will LNG prices spike?

Likely, unless investment ramps up. Europe and Asia’s competition for supply could push prices higher.