Can Ethereum (ETH) Rebound to $3,000? Key Analysis for February 2026
- Ethereum's Six-Month Downtrend: How Bad Is It?
- Critical Support at $2,100: Make or Break for ETH?
- Daily Chart Shows Potential Reversal Pattern
- Three Potential Scenarios for February
- FAQ: Your Ethereum Questions Answered
Ethereum (ETH) has had a rocky start to 2026, mirroring the broader crypto market's struggles. After shedding nearly 20% in January, ETH now hovers dangerously close to $2,000—a far cry from its $3,000 levels just months ago. This analysis dives into ETH's technical outlook, examining whether bulls can stage a comeback or if further downside looms. We'll explore weekly and daily charts, key support levels, and potential scenarios for ETH's price action. Buckle up—it's going to be a volatile ride.
Ethereum's Six-Month Downtrend: How Bad Is It?
Let's not sugarcoat it—ETH has been bleeding for half a year straight. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has underperformed even bitcoin during this correction, as shown in these stark numbers:
| Pair | 1H | 24H | 7D | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH/BTC | -0.12% | -1.78% | -11.40% | -14.68% | -9.92% | -10.94% | -12.77% |
| ETH/USDT | -0.19% | -2.13% | -21.21% | -26.79% | -31.08% | -40.07% | -23.20% |
Source: CoinMarketCap (Data as of February 3, 2026)
The ETH/BTC ratio tells an especially grim story—it's been sliding since August 2025, indicating traders have preferred Bitcoin during this market downturn. I've noticed this pattern often precedes extended ETH underperformance, similar to what we saw in the 2018-2019 bear market.
Critical Support at $2,100: Make or Break for ETH?
On weekly charts, ETH currently tests a make-or-break level at $2,100—a zone that previously acted as strong support throughout 2025. The last time we dipped below this in June 2025, it triggered a 30% cascade. Here's what's different now:
- Volume Profile: Selling volume has been declining since January's capitulation
- RSI Divergence: While price made lower lows, weekly RSI shows higher lows
- Open Interest: Perpetual swap funding rates turned positive this week
The BTCC research team notes that historically, when ETH holds above its 200-week moving average (currently at $2,050) during corrections, it tends to rebound strongly within 3-6 months. But here's the kicker—we're flirting with that exact level right now.
Daily Chart Shows Potential Reversal Pattern
Zooming into daily timeframes reveals an interesting development—ETH has formed a falling wedge pattern since its January crash, with current price action testing the pattern's lower boundary NEAR $2,350. From a technical standpoint:
- A breakout above $2,600 could confirm the pattern and target $3,000
- Failure to hold $2,350 may trigger a retest of January's $1,950 low
- The 50-day EMA at $2,480 acts as immediate resistance
What gives me pause is the weak momentum—daily RSI struggles to break above 50, and MACD histogram bars remain below zero. In my experience trading previous cycles, we typically need a "reset" (read: final flush) before sustainable rallies begin.
Three Potential Scenarios for February
Based on current technicals and market structure, here's how February might play out:
- Bull Case (30% Probability): ETH holds $2,100, reclaims $2,600, and challenges $3,000 by month-end
- Base Case (50% Probability): Range-bound between $2,100-$2,600 as market digests recent moves
- Bear Case (20% Probability): Breakdown below $2,100 leads to $1,800 retest
The wildcard? Ethereum's upcoming network upgrades. With EIP-7732 (consensus LAYER changes) scheduled for March, we might see anticipatory buying if market sentiment improves. That said, in this risk-off environment, even good news often gets sold.
FAQ: Your Ethereum Questions Answered
What's driving Ethereum's current price decline?
Three main factors: 1) Broader crypto market weakness as Bitcoin dominance rises, 2) Decreased DeFi activity reducing ETH utility demand, and 3) Profit-taking ahead of potential US regulatory changes.
How does Ethereum's current drop compare to historical corrections?
This 40% drawdown from 2025 highs mirrors mid-cycle corrections in 2016 (-45%) and 2019 (-60%). The key difference? Previous corrections occurred during bull markets, whereas now we're in a more uncertain macro environment.
What price levels should traders watch this week?
Critical levels are $2,350 (daily support), $2,600 (resistance), and $2,100 (weekly support). A close below $2,100 WOULD be particularly bearish, while breaking $2,600 could signal trend reversal.
Is now a good time to buy Ethereum?
This article does not constitute investment advice. That said, dollar-cost averaging into ETH at these levels has historically worked well long-term, but prepare for potential short-term volatility.
