Eli Lilly Stock: United Success Factors in 2025 – Can It Sustain the $1 Trillion Momentum?
- How Did Eli Lilly Crack the $1 Trillion Club?
- Orforglipron: The Next $1.8 Billion Catalyst?
- Novo Nordisk’s Alzheimer’s Flop: Why It Hit Lilly
- Competition Heats Up: Who’s Chasing Lilly?
- The Trillion-Dollar Question: Buy or Bail?
Eli Lilly just made Wall Street history by joining the elite $1 trillion market cap club, fueled by its obesity drug Zepbound and the upcoming launch of Orforglipron. Analysts are bullish, with price targets soaring to $1,300, but Novo Nordisk’s Alzheimer’s setback and rising competition pose risks. Here’s a DEEP dive into Lilly’s trillion-dollar journey—and whether the stock is a buy or a bubble.
How Did Eli Lilly Crack the $1 Trillion Club?
On Friday, November 24, 2025, Eli Lilly’s stock closed at $1,059.70, pushing its market cap past $1 trillion—a first for the pharma giant. It’s now the 10th U.S. company to hit this milestone, trailing giants like Apple and Microsoft. The driving force? Zepbound, its blockbuster obesity drug, which has become a Wall Street darling. Bernstein SocGen notes that Lilly’s timing is impeccable: "Their pipeline dominance in GLP-1 therapies is unmatched," says BTCC analyst David Lin. TradingView data shows Lilly shares have surged 68% year-to-date, outpacing the S&P 500’s 12% gain.
Orforglipron: The Next $1.8 Billion Catalyst?
Bernstein just hiked Lilly’s price target to $1,300 (from $1,100), betting big on Orforglipron, an oral obesity drug set to launch in 2026. Their projection? $1.8 billion in sales—triple the consensus estimate of $550 million. "We expect 80,000 weekly U.S. prescriptions by 2026," their report states. Morgan Stanley ($1,290 target) and Truist ($1,182) echo the optimism, citing Medicare’s expanded obesity drug coverage. "This isn’t just a drug—it’s a demographic tidal wave," argues Lin. "Baby boomers and millennials are driving demand."
Novo Nordisk’s Alzheimer’s Flop: Why It Hit Lilly
Not all news is rosy. Lilly’s stock dipped 5% last Wednesday after rival Novo Nordisk’s Alzheimer’s drug, semaglutide, failed Phase 3 trials. The EVOKE studies showed no statistically significant benefit over placebo, forcing Novo to scrap a planned trial extension. "This rattled investors’ faith in GLP-1 drugs for neurodegenerative diseases," notes a BTCC market report. Full results won’t drop until December 2025, but the damage is done—Lilly’s own Alzheimer’s candidate, donanemab, now faces tougher scrutiny.
Competition Heats Up: Who’s Chasing Lilly?
Structure Therapeutics is nipping at Lilly’s heels with its GLP-1 agonist, aleniglipron, set for Phase 2b data this year. Citizens JMP rates Structure a "Market Outperform" ($87 target), and its stock is up 30% despite a brutal year for small-molecule drugs. "Lilly’s lead is solid but not unshakable," warns Lin. "Oral therapies could democratize the market." Meanwhile, Lilly’s deal with the White House on GLP-1 pricing adds another LAYER of intrigue—details remain under wraps.
The Trillion-Dollar Question: Buy or Bail?
Lilly’s valuation hinges on execution. Can it deliver 2026’s projected $1.8 billion for Orforglipron? Will Zepbound prescriptions meet lofty expectations? "The stock’s priced for perfection," admits Lin. "Any stumble—supply issues, trial delays—could spark a correction." TradingView charts show Lilly’s RSI at 72, signaling overbought conditions. Yet with obesity drug sales forecast to hit $100 billion by 2030 (per Goldman Sachs), bulls argue the runway is long. "This isn’t hype—it’s healthcare’s iPhone moment," says one fund manager.
Data sources: TradingView, Bernstein Research, Morgan Stanley.
