Ferrari Raises Long-Term Revenue Forecasts: What’s Driving the Bold 2030 Targets?

• Why Did Ferrari’s Shares Jump 2.9% Post-Earnings?
• How Aggressive Are Ferrari’s 2025 and 2030 Targets?
• Electrification Without Compromise: Can Ferrari Pull It Off?
• Q3 Financials: Where Did the Profits Come From?
• What’s the Street Saying About Ferrari’s New Roadmap?
• FAQs: Your Ferrari Financials Cheat Sheet

Ferrari’s latest earnings report reveals a confident upward revision of its long-term revenue and EBITDA targets, fueled by strong pricing power, customization demand, and strategic electrification plans. The luxury automaker now eyes €9 billion in net revenue and €3.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2030, backed by Q3 2025 margins of 37.9% and a 7.6% jump in operating profit. Here’s why analysts are calling this a "high-octane pivot."

Why Did Ferrari’s Shares Jump 2.9% Post-Earnings?

Ferrari’s Milan-listed shares rallied as much as 2.9% after Q3 results showed resilience against U.S. tariffs, with shipments edging up 0.5% to 3,401 units. The real story? A 5.1% surge in average selling prices (ASPs), driven by the SF90 XX and 12Cilindri models. "Progress on ASPs is our North Star," noted Jefferies analysts, who flagged the upcoming F80 shipments as another catalyst. Personalization revenue—think gold-stitched seats or bespoke paint jobs—acted as a tariff shock absorber.

How Aggressive Are Ferrari’s 2025 and 2030 Targets?

The company doubled down on its 2025 guidance: ≥€7.1B net revenue and ≥€2.72B adjusted EBITDA. But the bombshell was the 2030 vision: ~€9B revenue and ≥€3.6B EBITDA. This marks a notable shift from October’s conservative outlook that triggered a 20% stock slide. With a €66B market cap, Ferrari’s playing the long game—literally. "They’re betting luxury buyers will keep paying premiums even in an EV world," observed the BTCC research team.

Electrification Without Compromise: Can Ferrari Pull It Off?

CEO Benedetto Vigna unveiled tech for the 2026 "Elettrica" EV during Capital Markets Day, stressing "powertrain freedom" for clients. The strategy? Hybrids today (like the SF90 XX), pure ICE for purists (12Cilindri), and EVs for the future—all while maintaining 38% EBITDA margins. Industrial costs dipped €12M in Q3, but R&D spend crept up for racing tech. "Their ‘no-sacrifice’ EV approach is either genius or hubris," quipped a TradingView analyst.

Q3 Financials: Where Did the Profits Come From?

The numbers tell a spicy tale:

• EBITDA: €670M (37.9% margin)
• Operating Profit: €503M (+7.6% YoY)
• Price/Mix Impact: +€25M (customization offsets Daytona SP3 delays)
• Tax Rate: 22% (thank you, Italian R&D incentives)

Free cash Flow hit €365M despite €230M in capex, while net industrial debt shrank to €116M from €338M—thanks partly to €132M in buybacks.

What’s the Street Saying About Ferrari’s New Roadmap?

Analysts are torn. The raised targets suggest confidence in pricing power, but some whisper "execution risk" given the EV pivot. Jefferies praised the ASP growth but warned: "2030 assumes flawless hybrid-to-EV handoff." Meanwhile, lifestyle ventures (think €32M from racing merch) are emerging as margin stabilizers. As one Bloomberg commentator put it: "Ferrari’s not selling cars—it’s selling exclusivity on wheels."

FAQs: Your Ferrari Financials Cheat Sheet

What’s driving Ferrari’s average price increases?

The SF90 XX and 12Cilindri families commanded premium pricing, while personalization options (like tailor-made interiors) added 5.1% to ASPs despite tariff headwinds.

How does Ferrari’s 2030 EBITDA target compare to peers?

At €3.6B, it’d outpace most luxury automakers. Porsche’s 2030 EBITDA target is ~€25B, but at half Ferrari’s margins—proof that scarcity sells.

Why did R&D spending increase despite lower industrial costs?

Ferrari’s funneling cash into its Formula 1 tech (which trickles down to road cars) and the Elettrica EV platform. Think of it as "racing-funded R&D."