Bitcoin’s Market Base Shifts to Neutral-Bearish Amid Persistent Weak Flows

Bitcoin's foundation shows cracks as institutional interest wanes.

Flow Drought Deepens

Capital movements into Bitcoin products hit multi-week lows—ETF inflows stutter while whale wallets show notable inactivity. The market's bleeding momentum faster than a hedge fund loses credibility.

Neutral Isn't Neutral Enough

Analysts flag the 'neutral-bearish' pivot as more concerning than outright bearishness—it signals uncertainty, not conviction. Traders park funds on sidelines waiting for cues that haven't materialized.

When Weakness Becomes the Narrative

Absent bullish catalysts, the flow weakness feeds itself. No major buyers step in, no FOMO triggers emerge—just sideways action that costs holders more in opportunity than any crash would. Classic finance: overpay for stability, undervalue disruption.

Bitcoin Stuck In Neutral-Bearish Base

According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s current structure remains fragile as both price and derivative flows sit below 50, signaling weakness across critical indicators. Adler emphasizes that while short-term rebounds are possible, the market lacks the conviction required for a sustained uptrend. With taker flows still negative and weak, any recovery from present levels is likely to be a mean-reversion bounce toward $113K, aligning with the Fair Value and mid-30-day range, rather than the beginning of a new bullish phase.

This environment suggests that risk appetite remains absent, leaving the market vulnerable to further tests of lower boundaries. Adler notes that unless flows shift meaningfully, price rallies will likely remain capped and quickly fade as selling pressure reemerges. The nearest bullish setup WOULD require stabilization of flows that could push BTC toward the $113K–$115K region, a technical recovery zone that would ease immediate bearish sentiment but still fall short of confirming a regime shift.

For a true change in market structure, Adler points to two key thresholds: FLOW >55 and Price Index >50. Only when both conditions are met will Bitcoin have the foundation for a stronger, trend-confirming rally. Until then, the market faces an elevated risk of repeated retests of support zones, with traders closely monitoring whether BTC can hold above $110K or slip further into correction territory.

BTC Holding the Line Above $110K

Bitcoin continues to consolidate around the $110K–$111K zone, showing resilience after weeks of sharp selling pressure. The chart highlights how BTC has bounced from recent lows NEAR $108K but still struggles to reclaim higher momentum. The 50-day moving average now acts as resistance, capping the upside attempts and reflecting waning bullish strength.

Despite the pullback from the $123K all-time high, the structure remains intact above the 200-day moving average near $101K, which has consistently served as a long-term support. The current price action shows a market caught in balance: bulls are defending demand, but bears maintain pressure as rallies face rejection around the $112K level.

The flat trajectory of the 100-day moving average reinforces the consolidation phase, suggesting that a decisive breakout is needed to confirm direction. If Bitcoin closes above $113K in the short term, it could set up a retest of $118K, the mid-range level that has acted as both support and resistance.

Failure to hold the $110K level could expose BTC to repeated tests of $108K and, ultimately, the psychological $105K zone. For now, Bitcoin’s fate hinges on whether buyers can stabilize flows and absorb ongoing selling pressure.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView