Bitcoin Sits 8% Below CME Gap Before Monthly Close — Will History Repeat Itself?

Bitcoin teeters on the edge of a crucial technical pattern as monthly trading winds down.

The CME Gap Looms Large

Markets watch that 8% deficit like hawks—because futures gaps have a notorious habit of filling. Price tends to snap back to these voids, and traders know it. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but in crypto, patterns often rhyme.

Timing the Bounce

Will Bitcoin claw back toward that gap before the month ends? History suggests it might. Then again, Wall Street analysts are already sharpening their 'I told you so' speeches—because nothing makes a traditional financier happier than a crypto dip they can blame on 'irrational exuberance'.

Either way, buckle up. Monthly closes in crypto aren’t for the faint of heart.

Bitcoin’s 98% CME Gap Fill Rate Sets Up $116K Recovery Potential

In an X post on Friday, KillaXBT tips Bitcoin to make a significant price bounce following the steep correction patterns seen in the last two weeks. The analyst explains that this bullish stance is driven by an existing CME gap from last weekend. For context, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) halts Bitcoin futures trading every weekend, creating what is known as a CME gap, i.e., an untraded range that forms when Bitcoin’s price moves significantly during the weekend while CME is closed.

Last weekend, the CME market closed on August 23rd with Bitcoin trading at 116,939 before opening again on August 25th, when prices now traded at $112,600, leaving a clear $4,300 price gap on the CME chart. Since then, Bitcoin has even slipped further, with prices now trading around $108,200. However, KillaXBT explains that since trading at $16,000, the Bitcoin market has seen 98% of weekend CME gaps filled. This historical performance presents a potential 8% upside if prices were to return to around $116,939. Notably, the monthly close is fast approaching, which represents a period often marked by volatility and institutional rebalancing. If bulls can regain momentum and push BTC back toward the $116,900 range, it would not only close the CME gap but also re-establish strength after a period of multi-week correction.

Bitcoin Market Outlook

Aside from the short-term bullish potential of the CME gap, KillaXBT also remains long on Bitcoin’s future. The analyst also raises a key point that $5 billion was printed in under a week, which historically precedes major upward impulses. The bitcoin enthusiast further explains that current downward pressure is a leverage flush ahead of the monthly close, and expects upside continuation in the coming weeks, potentially toward a cycle top.

Referencing past halving cycles, Killa XBT notes this one has lasted 490 days, and based on historical patterns, there could be another 30–45 days before a top is likely. However, a key support lies between $106,000–$107,000. A breakdown below $100,000 WOULD invalidate the thesis and trigger an exit or re-entry strategy.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin continues to trade at $107,954, reflecting a 3.44% decline in the past day.