Bitcoin STH Cost Basis Converges With Key Signal: $100K Support Floor Solidifies
Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis just locked into a historic alignment with one of crypto's most reliable indicators—and it's flashing green for the six-figure threshold.
The $100K Magnet
Market dynamics now pivot around that psychological barrier. Support clusters tighten beneath it, creating what analysts call a 'gravity well' for prices. Retail and institutional accumulation patterns both reinforce this level—rare consensus in a typically fragmented ecosystem.
On-Chain Reality Check
Blockchain data doesn't lie. The STH cost basis metric historically acts as both support and resistance during bull cycles. This time, it coincides with institutional entry points and options market gamma levels. That triple confirmation rarely happens outside textbook scenarios.
Wall Street's Reluctant Nod
Traditional finance desks now grudgingly include the $100K level in their risk models. Some even hedge exposure using derivatives tied specifically to that price—a backhanded compliment to crypto's persistence. Because nothing says 'serious asset class' like forcing legacy banks to redesign their Excel templates.
Whether this propels Bitcoin into uncharted territory or becomes another 'almost' story depends on macro conditions. But the setup looks more robust than a banker's apology after a bailout.
Bitcoin Support Levels: Key Insights
According to Adler, Bitcoin’s current struggle around the $110K zone highlights how crucial strong support levels will be in shaping the next market phase. He points out that if BTC fails to hold the $100K–$107K confluent range, the next significant support lies deeper, around the $92K–$93K region. This zone reflects the cost basis of short-term holders who acquired Bitcoin within the past three to six months. Historically, such levels act as “last defense” areas where buyers step in, as these investors tend to be highly sensitive to price swings.
Adler stresses that losing the $100K–$107K level WOULD likely trigger a sharp reaction in the market, as it not only aligns with the 200-day SMA but also the Short-Term Holder Realized Price. A break below would shift sentiment, possibly leading to panic selling before stability re-emerges near the $92K–$93K area.
Despite these risks, Adler and many other analysts still expect Bitcoin to reclaim momentum in the medium term. They argue that strong fundamentals, ranging from institutional adoption to declining exchange reserves, support the thesis of BTC pushing past all-time highs in the coming months. For now, however, the $100K–$107K range remains the battleground that will decide Bitcoin’s near-term direction.
BTC Price Analysis: Key Levels To Hold
Bitcoin is trading NEAR $110,213 after a sharp retrace, showing signs of struggle as bulls attempt to stabilize the market. The chart highlights a critical test at the 200-day moving average (200D SMA, red line), currently sitting just below the price and acting as the last major dynamic support. This level has historically provided strong protection during corrections, and losing it could trigger deeper declines.
The 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) SMAs are now turning into resistance levels after being breached in recent sessions. Both indicators cluster in the $111K–$116K range, signaling heavy selling pressure above. The broader structure shows Bitcoin has failed to reclaim the $123K zone, its recent all-time high, and has instead shifted into a consolidation phase marked by lower highs and testing supports.
If BTC loses the $110K zone, the next major support lies in the $100K–$107K range, aligning with Adler’s view that this area represents the STH (short-term holder) realized cost basis and the SMA 200D confluence. On the upside, reclaiming $115K will be the first step for a recovery. For now, Bitcoin remains in a vulnerable but critical zone where the next MOVE will dictate whether bulls can regain control.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
